Arsenal's chances of lifting the Premier League trophy at the end of the season have been boosted by their victory in the north London derby, according to new data from Opta's supercomputer.
The Gunners' chances of winning the title have increased to 13 percent, an increase of 4.6 percent from the previous match week and an increase of one percent from the start of the season. In good form, they have conceded just seven goals in their last ten league matches, scoring 23 and winning seven games.
Mikel Arteta's side secured three points on Wednesday evening after coming from behind to beat Spurs with a winner from Leandro Trossard. This moved them back above Forest in the table and closed the gap on Liverpool to four points with one match left. Arteta is convinced that his Arsenal side are in a title fight and calls his team 'sensational' and 'consistent'.
Arsenal will hope to continue their excellent form and defensive record with trips to Wolves and Leicester in the coming weeks. However, they will face tests against Manchester City at home and Nottingham Forest away in February.
Early March saw a challenging visit to Old Trafford, with Manchester United knocking the Gunners out of the FA Cup on penalties on Sunday. In addition to this setback, they have also suffered recent injuries to key players Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus.
While Arteta hopes Saka will be back in the squad by the end of February, Jesus will be out for the rest of the season after injuring the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee.
Furthermore, the Gunners expect Kai Havertz's form in goal to favor if they are to make a serious title claim. On the other hand, their defense has been virtually flawless this season and is the best in the division thanks to the solidity of Gabriel and William Saliba at the back. They can also be applauded for bouncing back well when needed, as evidenced by their win over Spurs.
Arne Slot's Liverpool side were given a 5.1 percent chance of Premier League glory by Opta in August, but are now the runaway leaders, with the supercomputer giving the Reds an 86.5 percent chance of winning the title to win – only a slight decline from 87.4 percent in early January.
Liverpool have the statistically best run of the top three – the average league position of the teams they face in the next five games is just 14th, including hosts Ipswich and Wolves – but they could still face a banana peel with a trip to Goodison Park up for the rearranged Merseyside derby against Everton.
The top two of the Premier Leagues are also in the top three of the Champions League, while Arsenal and Liverpool are on the verge of qualifying for the round of 16, so the crowds in the matches could be a test.
Slot has had to prepare for a crippling eight games in January, followed by seven more games in February and even more in March. Liverpool will be eyeing success in all four competitions this season, not only with an eye on Premier League glory, but also on overturning a one-goal deficit at Anfield against Spurs in the second leg of the semi-final of the Carabao Cup.
Despite Forest sitting in third place and winning a whopping 19 points from the last 21 in the Premier League – conceding just four goals in this run – Opta have given Nuno's team a 0.1 per cent chance of making history writing with a title win.
Instead, the most likely position Forest will finish, based on their benchmark, is fifth. But if they hope to achieve a miracle, they are in the best position to do so.
Chris Wood scored the opener – and his twelfth league goal of the season – against Liverpool in their midweek draw, sending the City Ground into turmoil, and Wood continues to prove himself as a key member of Nuno's squad.
In addition to Wood, Anthony Elanga and Morgan Gibbs-White are also crucial assets in Forest's attack. And yet, despite this attacking prowess, the success in Nottingham this season has been in defence. Forest have kept nine clean sheets this season, with Matz Sels making 63 league saves and ably assisted by a powerful back 4 including Ola Aina and Nikola Milenkovic.
Slot himself was positive about Forest's chances, claiming they still have a chance to lead Liverpool to the title.
“I've always said the best time to assess the table is mid-season and that time has now come, so when Forest are at the top with us,” said the Liverpool manager when asked about their title hopes ahead of their draw at Anfield.
With Manchester City and Chelsea both drawing 2-2 on Tuesday, their title hopes have diminished, with City given a 0.2 percent chance of winning the Premier League, down from 82.2 percent before even a match had been played.
Chelsea have been denied any chance of title success as their percentage chances dropped from 0.3 percent at the start of 2025 to zero percent after their home draw against Bournemouth. Outside the top flight, Maresca's men are the heavy favorites to win the Europa Conference League for the first time, but the Blues will have to get through seven more games if they want to lift the trophy, changing their schedule for the next few matches will continue to be filled. months.
Newcastle extended their winning streak in all competitions to 10 games with a 3-0 win over Wolves, and increased their chances of winning the title to 0.2 percent with a late strike.
The Tyneside club are in the best form in the division, with top scorer Alexander Isak scoring 15 Premier League goals from a 12.54xG, making him the most clinical finisher in the competition and extending his tally of goals in consecutive league games to eight .
The Magpies also have a favorable run of fixtures with Bournemouth and Fulham visiting St James' Park in January, followed by a trip to St Mary's before facing rock bottom Southampton.
Eddie Howe will be hopeful his team can continue their league form with no European competition to worry about this season, and a possible trip to Wembley on the horizon in March as they continue their lead against Arsenal in the second semi-final of the Carabao Cup retain. leg.
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