Supercomputer calculates points needed to qualify from the Champions League ‘league phase’

Liverpool are at the top of the standings heading into matchday 5 of the new Swiss model UCL.

The Champions League returns this week with mouth-watering matches from across Europe. Liverpool hosts Real Madrid and Bayern Munich travel to Paris Saint-Germain, but what does that all mean?

The 2024/25 season is the first in the history of the Champions League to use the 'Swiss Model' format, with all teams competing on a single table of 36 teams. Liverpool lead the way at the halfway stage with four wins from four, but how many points do they need to book their place in the knockout rounds?

The top eight teams earn a guaranteed spot in the round of 16, while the teams ranked ninth through 24th will enter a playoff round to determine the remaining eight spots.

Before the season, the Opta supercomputer crunched the numbers to calculate how many points are needed to qualify. After 50,000 simulations, these were the findings…

How many points to finish in the top eight of the Champions League?

The top eight teams will advance directly to the knockout rounds. Opta found that teams progressed by 16 points in 98% of simulations, equivalent to five wins and a draw.

Teams with 15 points finished in the top eight in 73% of simulations, but teams with 14 points only achieved this 28% of the time. In other words, 15 points is the target for teams expecting to qualify automatically. With twelve points from four games, Liverpool only need one win from their remaining four games to achieve that goal.

How many points to finish in the top 24 of the Champions League?

The most fascinating part of the new UCL format is the elimination of places nine to 24. Half of all teams will be in these places, with the higher placed teams taking on the lower ones in the next play-off round ranked teams. How many points are needed?

The supercomputer Opta discovered that teams with ten points from the competition phase ended up in the top 24 in 99% of the simulations. The key cutoff point is nine points, with 69% of teams making progress. Those with eight points only made it in 16% of the simulations.

If ten points is the figure that essentially guaranteed a place in the top 24, there are five teams that can count on their European lead to continue beyond the competition phase. Liverpool (12 points) and Sporting CP, Monaco, Brest and Inter Milan (all 10 points) have all achieved that target.

Of course, all these figures are projections only and do not represent defined thresholds for qualification. As thorough as Opta's calculations are, the supercomputer ensured Liverpool finished with the 12th best record in the league stage. After their 100% start, Arne Slot's side will be much higher at the final table.

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