LIVERPOOL looks to be on top of the pop in the Champions League group stages.
But they are not favorites to become European champions for the seventh time.
This is evident from the supercomputer BETSiE from Bettingexpert.
After the last round, including Arsenal's 3-0 win over Dinamo Zagreb and Manchester City's 4-2 defeat against Paris Saint-Germain, the supercomputer made a simulation of the competition.
After 100,000 simulations, taking into account factors such as all match results from last season, pre-season results and current season results, projecting the season based on both pre-season expectations and xG earned both before and after against during the season, the results of who will win the tournament have been received.
The supercomputer ignored the elite clubs with winning legacies in the competition and has instead withdrawn a club that will triumph for the first time ever.
And that winner is Arsenal.
The supercomputer predicted that Arsenal would win the Champions League in 26.3 percent of simulations, while Liverpool would emerge victorious in 21.6 percent of simulations.
The third most likely winner is Real Madrid with 9.4 percent, although they will also almost certainly miss out on a place in the top eight and therefore have to progress through the play-offs via a draw.
Spanish rivals Barcelona have fared much better in the league stage and are the only club that can mathematically catch table-topper Liverpool in the competition.
However, Lamine Yamal and co were only champions in 8.9 percent of the simulations.
Bayern Munich, PSG and Man City will almost certainly all have to win a play-off match to reach the last sixteen. Bayern only have an eight percent chance of reaching the top eight after their 3-0 defeat to Feyenoord.
All three are incredibly close when it comes to the number of times they won in the simulation: 6.7 percent for the German side, 6.5 percent for the French and 6.2 percent for the English.
Inter Milan, Bayer Leverkusen and Atalanta complete the top ten teams with 3.9 percent, 3.7 percent and 1.7 percent of simulations won respectively.
Aston Villa were one of the surprise packages of the group stage and are just outside the top eight after some big wins against the likes of Bayern Munich.
Unai Emery's side have a 68.8 percent chance of making it into the top eight, but only a 1.5 percent chance of winning the competition outright.
Every team below that has less than a one percent chance of winning the Champions League this season.
This includes past winners such as AC Milan, Juventus, Benfica, Borussia Dortmund and Feyenoord and future winners such as Atletico Madrid, Monaco, Sporting CP and Lille.
Every other team not in the top 20 has a zero percent win rate in the league according to the supercomputer, meaning bad luck for Scottish giants Celtic who have qualified for a play-off spot.
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