City still EPL’s best in terms of xG but Haaland’s conversion rate is terrible

After Sunday's 2-0 defeat to Liverpool, Manchester City have now gone seven games without a win in all competitions, six of which were losses.

Pep Guardiola's men are eleven points behind at the top of the Premier League and are now just four points ahead of Manchester United, who have a superior goal difference.

City have scored fewer goals than Brentford and conceded more than Crystal Palace.

According to Opta, City now only have a 4.4 percent chance of winning the title this season – after being champions in each of the past four campaigns.

But where did it all go so wrong for City?

Interestingly, City are still winning when it comes to expected goals. Despite being fifth in the Premier League proper, City remain at the top of the xG ladder.

City's average xG in league games this season was 2.08, which is higher than any other team. Tottenham are second with 1.81 per game, while Liverpool are third with 1.72.

Defensively, City also top the xG charts, averaging 1.05 per match in terms of expected goals conceded. Once again, Spurs have the second best record (1.15), followed by Liverpool (1.18).

If xG had replaced real goals, City would have scored 27.04 and conceded 13.65 this season. In the real world, Guardiola's men have scored 22 goals and conceded 19.

On the one hand, this data suggests that – in the long term – City are likely to return to their winning ways, as they create significantly more chances than their opponents.

But another way to look at it is that its finish needs to improve dramatically.

City averaged more shots per game (18.7) than any other Premier League team this season, but scored fewer goals than Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Brentford.

Star striker Erling Haaland has scored just two goals in his last eight league games, despite playing the full 90 minutes each time.

Those two goals came from 38 shots, of which only 16 were on target.

City's results have also fallen dramatically since Ballon d'Or winner Rodri injured his anterior cruciate ligament in September. City had started the Premier League season with four straight wins before Rodri suffered a potentially season-ending injury in a 2–2 draw against Arsenal in September.

Rodri was initially replaced in central midfield by Mateo Kovacic, but since then he has also been on the injury list. Since Rodri's injury, City have taken just 10 points from a possible 24 in the Premier League.

So, is their title bid over? City certainly has a mountain to climb.

Only three times in the history of the Premier League – and not once since the 1990s – have teams overcome a deficit of 11 points or more to win the title.

Manchester United overturned 12-point deficits in 1992-93 and 1995-96. Arsenal were then 13 points behind United, albeit with a game in hand, in December 1997, before finishing top by a point thanks to a run of 10 consecutive wins from March to May.

Former Barcelona and Bayern Munich boss Guardiola has become accustomed to winning. In only three of his 15 seasons as manager has he failed to win a league title. But his City side will be nowhere near the Premier League title this season unless their points per match numbers improve significantly.

City's average points per game has fallen from 2.56 to 1.77 this season following their recent four-match losing streak in the league.

That puts them on course for a final tally of 67 points, which would be their lowest total since they reached 66 in 2015/16 – the season before Guardiola took charge.

Before the current season, Guardiola's average points per season at City was 89.5.

Guardiola's lowest ever points total as a manager was 78 in his first season at City, with even his 34 appearances in the Bundesliga with Bayern surpassing that mark.

He has never lost four league games in a row before and has lost eight fewer times in a full season.

Apart from the title, City's Champions League qualification could be in doubt. Seven teams previously finished a Premier League season with 67 points, with five finishing in fourth place and the other two in fifth place.

Expanding the scope slightly, 39 teams finished with between 65 and 69 points, with an average final position of 4.3. Should England again finish with four Champions League qualifiers, instead of five, City will need to stop the rot to secure their presence.