The Numbers Game: Man City need a win as Tottenham come to town

Manchester City find themselves in uncharted territory before Tottenham visit the Etihad Stadium on Saturday.

Pep Guardiola's all-conquering side, who have won four consecutive Premier League titles, have lost their last four games in all competitions.

It is the first time in Guardiola's managerial career that he has lost four games in a row in all competitions, while it is the first time City have lost that many in a row since 2006, when they lost six on the rebound under Stuart Pearce.

A 2–1 EFL Cup defeat to Tottenham in late October was the start of City's poor form, and defeats to Bournemouth, Sporting CP and Brighton followed.

With Liverpool continuing their good form under Arne Slot, City go into the weekend five points behind the Reds.

Although Liverpool are not in action until Sunday, City can ramp up the pressure again by taking on a Spurs team who lost 2-1 at home to Ipswich Town before the international break.

Here we look at an example of the collision using the best Opta data.

What is expected?

City have won just three of their last ten Premier League games against Tottenham (D2 L5) and are looking to win consecutive league games with them for the first time since April 2019.

But despite that indifferent form against Spurs, City are still made heavy favorites by Opta's supercomputer, which puts their chances of victory at 59.5%.

Spurs' win probability stands at 20.2%, while the draw probability stands at 20.3%.

City's form has seen them slip when it comes to the Opta supercomputer's predictions for this season, with Liverpool now the favorites to win the title (60.2%).

However, this match should promise goals.

Tottenham have scored at least twice in each of their last three away Premier League games against City: they won 3-2 in 2021/22, lost 4-2 in 2022/23 and drew 3-3 last season. No team has ever scored multiple goals in four consecutive Premier League visits to the Etihad.

Under Guardiola (since 2016/2017), City have lost more Premier League games (six) and conceded more Premier League goals (22) against Tottenham than against any other opponent.

Saturday's match will also see two of this season's three top-scoring teams face off. Spurs (23) have scored the most goals in the top flight, while City (22) are joint second alongside Brentford.

City have recorded the highest xG (22.3), while Ange Postecoglou's team have the second highest (21.7). These teams have combined for 401 shots in 22 games this season, so expect some entertainment.

Classic city, or is something going on?

In recent years City have tended to take a while to get going, but they have never had such a short run of form as they are at this stage of the season.

Guardiola is in the midst of the longest losing spell of his entire managerial career. Although they are the only team to have scored in every Premier League match so far this season, City have lost their last two games (1-2 against Bournemouth and Brighton). They last lost three in a row in the league in February/March 2016, a run that included a home defeat to Tottenham.

City have already dropped seven points this season by gaining positions, while they only dropped 10 points from such positions last season.

They have gained thirteen points to top the league by losing positions, but that shows they are falling behind far more often than Guardiola would like.

The loss of Rodri to a season-ending knee injury has not helped and City may have to enter the market in January in search of a replacement.

Since the start of last season, City have played thirteen league matches without Rodri, five of which they have lost. Their winning percentage without the Spaniard in the squad in that time stands at 53.8%, while with him in the team it rises to 77.8%.

With Liverpool facing Southampton, City know they need to get back on track quickly or they may simply have too big of a gap to bridge.

Road rage

Spurs have won just two of their last 11 Premier League away games (D2 L7) and have won just one in five this season. Since the start of this period in March, no team has lost more away games in the Premier League than Tottenham (seven).

However, Postecoglou will not change his approach to this game. Spurs want to get ahead at every opportunity, and the stats back this up.

As a team, Tottenham have made more off-the-ball runs into the box than any other side in the Premier League this season (612), with Dominic Solanke having the most (138).

Spurs have also had the most shots into the penalty area of ​​any Premier League team this season (134).

Tottenham have played more passes/crosses into the opponent's penalty area than any other team in the Premier League this season (429). There are ten players in the division who have made 70+, of which Spurs have three (Pedro Porro 96, James Maddison 77, Dejan Kulusevski 72).

Postecoglou promised Spurs fans a trophy this season, and their defeat to City in the EFL Cup was a big scalp, but in the league they have lost three of their last six games and are tenth, although they are only three points clear are from the top. six.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester City – Erling Haaland

Haaland scored a hat-trick for Norway this week, taking his total for the season to 22 for club and country.

He returned to scoring form in the Premier League against Brighton, although City were unable to hold on for the win. While he may not have always shown his best, Haaland is still scoring at a remarkable rate of 1.1 goals per 90 minutes in the top flight this season.

Tottenham – Dejan Kulusevski

No player has created more chances in the Premier League this season, both in total (30) and from open play (25), than Kulusevski.

His pace and ability on the counter could be a real asset against City's high line.