Manchester City's collapse is the story of the first half of the season, while Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal are still hoping they can become the story of the second half of the season by winning the title. But what about two teams that are between them all?
Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth are in fourth and fifth place respectively at Christmas, exceeding resources and expectations. The most fascinating thing about that is not just that they managed to do it, but how they did it.
One of the criticisms of the Premier League in recent seasons has been a kind of orthodoxy in approach, undoubtedly influenced by the success of Pep Guardiola. The game is bent towards his football as teams look for possession.
It felt like 2024 was the year football's culture wars broke out. Everyone had to have a view of Ange Postecoglou. Meanwhile, Vincent Kompany, a protege of Guardiola, was appointed head coach of Bayern Munich despite being relegated with Burnley.
Russell Martin seemed to see Southampton suffering the same fate as a prize worth having. “We have to believe in something.” He talked not only about game principles, but also about values, almost attributing a moral element to it. Style not as a means, but as an end in itself.
Against this backdrop, the rise of Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth feels as timely as it is revelatory. Because these are two of that shrinking group of clubs whose coaches seem willing to play a different brand of football than the rest.
In the era of possession, only Sean Dyche's Everton sees as little of the football as Forest. Bournemouth are not far ahead in terms of possession statistics. They both rank in the bottom three for number of passing sequences of 10 or more.
While Manchester City and Southampton stand alone as the teams with the slowest – some say most patient – build-ups, Nuno Espirito Santo's Forest and Andoni Iraola's Bournemouth are the two most direct teams in the Premier League.
Speaking to Sky Sports about this in October, Iraola said: “The first thing we try to do when we get the ball back is play against the number 9 because that is usually the moment when the opponent is less well positioned and you can find better spaces.”
We don't have to wait for the opposition to get back on form for Iraola. His teams came through quickly, a vertical game as some like to call it. It could be devastating for the opposition and exciting for their own supporters. Just ask those who have traveled to Manchester United.
Another intriguing aspect of this is that while some of Forest and Bournemouth's numbers are similar, other aspects of their play are completely different. They both move the ball up the field quickly, but they have different approaches to getting the ball.
Iraola's flank presses high. “This season we are recovering a lot of balls high on the field.” They have already had 35 shots on target this season as a result of high turnovers from that pressure, more than any other team in the Premier League.
Nuno's side does not press high. In fact, Forest allow their opponents to run the ball up the pitch more than any other team in the Premier League, with one of these two being outliers. Opponents travel an average of 15.5 meters before they are stopped.
Forest allow more passes per defensive action than any other side. They are content with these possession teams having the ball in areas where they cannot hurt them. Nuno's plan is to eventually guide the ball into an area where they can win it, and then strike quickly.
He is a natural pragmatist. Nuno told Sky Sports in 2024: “It's not about more or less possession. I could have a very good idea, but do I think it will work? Do I have the staff to implement it?” what am I thinking?”
When asked what improvements he had tried to make to the team, he had tried to make Forest more compact, he explained. “Our organization, if we're going to get the ball back and the distances between our players, we have to close those gaps even more.”
Iraola sees it very differently. He wants to open games and not close them. “Most of the games we win are the ones that are more open, where there are more chances, where we can exploit one-on-ones on the outside and find bigger spaces.
He added: “The better the opposition, the more risk you have to take if you want to put pressure on them. You know, sometimes people say, 'They are very good, so we have to wait a little longer to put pressure on them. .' But that way you have zero chance of getting that ball back.”
Iraola's Bournemouth have a rare intensity and they like to turn games into a foot race, making the pitch big. Only Ipswich have covered more ground this season than the Cherries so far. Only Tottenham averages more sprints per match.
“We like to prioritize this kind of volume in our running because we feel that in games that are quite close, where one small chance can make the difference, we are not that good.” Forest? Nuno's team, on the other hand, is the king of the exciting football match.
No team has won as many games by just one goal. No team has lost less. Keeping it tight is the mantra and that is reflected in their own running stats. They rank in the bottom three for sprints. Only Leicester have played fewer games than them this season.
Two teams with contrasting approaches, but two teams with similarly impressive results. And the fact that they are doing it differently than anyone else in the Premier League is cause for celebration and goes against the homogeneity of modern football.
The lesson of David and Goliath is sufficiently entrenched in our culture to be included in the Old Testament. You can't hope to beat a stronger opposition by doing what they did. The success of Nuno and Iraola is further proof of that old truth.
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