Mikel Arteta's reign at Arsenal has been an unmitigated success on the face of it.
Just over five years after taking charge, Arteta has transformed the Arsenal squad and reconnected fans and players at the Emirates Stadium. Without the brilliance of Pep Guardiola's Manchester City, he might have two Premier League titles to reward his efforts.
However, the 2020 FA Cup success remains Arteta's only major trophy at the helm, and Tuesday's 2-0 EFL Cup defeat to Newcastle United amplified the dissenting voices.
Should the Gunners fail to overturn that two-goal deficit when they resume their semi-final tie in early February, the FA Cup could be their best chance of success this season, with Liverpool in danger of walking away with the national title.
Arsenal face a tough task in the third round this weekend, with FA Cup holders Manchester United visiting the Emirates fresh from a morale-boosting 2-2 draw at Anfield last week.
To preview Sunday's match, we dive into the top stats and data insights related to both teams.
There have been many consecutive winners in the history of #EmiratesFACup
Will @ManUtd add to that list this season? pic.twitter.com/Wvd2CK6SAw
— Emirates FA Cup (@EmiratesFACup) January 7, 2025
What is expected?
This will be the sixteenth different FA Cup match – excluding replays or second legs – between Arsenal and Man Utd, the second highest in the competition's history after Liverpool vs Everton (19).
However, it will be the first time that the FA Cup's two most successful clubs (Arsenal 14 titles, United 13) meet in the third round of the competition.
Sunday's match makes Arsenal v United the seventh match in FA Cup history to be played in each of the six available rounds for top clubs (third round to final), following Arsenal v Chelsea, Chelsea v Liverpool, Chelsea v Man United. , Chelsea v Tottenham, Liverpool v United and United v Southampton.
Arsenal have been knocked out in the third round of the FA Cup twice in the past three years, having previously fallen at this hurdle just once in 25 seasons.
United, meanwhile, have knocked out Arsenal in the FA Cup more times than any other club (eight times), although the Gunners have also knocked out the Red Devils more times than any other team (seven times).
The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal heavy favorites to progress, giving the Gunners a 71.4% chance of victory inside 90 minutes.
United won just 12.2% of our pre-match simulations, while 16.3% completed the level. With FA Cup replays a thing of the past, a draw would mean extra time and possibly penalties.
Will Gunners shoot?
For all Arteta's talk about the impact of the 'tricky' Puma-made balls used in the EFL Cup, he will know that Arsenal's attack was well below par on Tuesday, and not for the first time.
The Gunners fired 23 shots unsuccessfully in Tuesday's match, their second most in a single match without scoring under Arteta, having registered 30 in a Premier League defeat to West Ham in December 2023.
Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber all missed big chances against the Magpies as Arsenal posted 3.09 expected goals (xG) but hit the target just three times.
Better luck next time, although Arsenal's attacking struggles – at least from open play – have been a theme of their season.
Across all competitions, Arsenal have averaged 1.37 goals from open play per 90 minutes this season, compared to an average of 1.26 xG per match. Both figures are down on 2023/24, when the Gunners scored 1.46 goals per game from open play, an average of 1.32 xG.
They are averaging over two fewer shots from open play compared to last season (10 vs. 12.1), while their xG per shot in 2024-25 was 0.11 when set pieces are excluded, compared to 0.13 xG per attempt last season.
Arteta insisted last month he was flattered by jokey comparisons between his side and the Stoke City team famous for their reliance on set-pieces under Tony Pulis, but deep down he cannot be pleased with their stagnation in open play.
Their decline has been even more noticeable against their rivals, with Arsenal winning just two of ten Premier League games against top-half teams this season (six draws, two defeats), compared to nine of ten against bottom-half teams (one tie).
United are languishing in 13th place, but recent results at Manchester City and Liverpool have shown their potential on the big stage. The pressure is on Arsenal on Sunday and Arteta needs his team to find their shooting boots.
Is Bruno back at his best?
United fought back from 2-1 down to draw 2-2 with Liverpool last time out, and but for a major stoppage-time injury to Harry Maguire they could have earned the famous three points.
Things have been far from smooth for the Red Devils under Ruben Amorim, but they retain the star quality to cause problems, especially against opponents who give them space to play on half-time.
Captain Bruno Fernandes sums up that quality better than anyone and looked back to his best at Anfield as he returned from a one-match ban following his red card at Wolves on Boxing Day.
Fernandes created four chances in Sunday's match, at least twice as many as any other player on the pitch (Mohamed Salah, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister and Andy Robertson each created two).
That is the most a United player has created in a Premier League match at Anfield since Opta's records began in 2003-04, including his assist for Lisandro Martinez's opener.
Only Cole Palmer (57) and Anthony Gordon (47) have surpassed Fernandes' total of 43 chances created in the Premier League this season.
However, his creativity has waned in the 2024/25 season. His rate of 1.8 open chances per 90 minutes in the Premier League is his worst in any season since 2019/20 (1.7).
If Amorim has found a way to unlock the Portugal international, who has cut a frustrated figure for most of the season and has already been sent off three times, United could reap the rewards.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Arsenal – Gabriel Jesus
Jesus has scored six goals in his last six games in all competitions, while scoring just once in his first 20 games of 2024/25.
Only Havertz (12) and Bukayo Saka (nine) have scored more goals than Jesus among Arsenal players this season, with the former having played almost 1,000 more minutes than Jesus (2,111 to 1,164).
However, the Brazilian has only scored once in fourteen games against United. Against Newcastle (769) and Southampton (745) he only averages more minutes per goal than against the Red Devils (577).
Manchester United – Amad Diallo
At Anfield, Diallo became only the third United player to score for both Man City and Liverpool in the same Premier League season.
Only Wayne Rooney (in 2004-2005) and Robin van Persie (in 2012-2013) had previously achieved this feat while representing the Red Devils.
Diallo could add another goal at the home of one of United's biggest rivals.
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