On the last Premier League competition day of the season it's all about the race for the Champions League.
Aston Villa is one of the five teams who still have a chance to conquer a place in Europe Top match, but with only three points that are third separated from the seventh, there is so much to play for.
Villa starts the day in the sixth and are one of the three teams, together with Newcastle United and Chelsea, on 66 points, with their inferior target difference that they are currently keeping out of the top five.
They travel to Manchester United, who will be disappointed after missing their own Champions League qualification.
On Wednesday, United lost the Europa League Final 1-0 to Tottenham Hotspur in San Mames and sniffs their last hope to end the season on a High by achieving the trophy and a place in Europe.
They have already been sent to their lowest Premier League finish, who are currently 16th in the table, just above their Europa League overers, but Ruben Amorim will want to sign on Sunday with a victory at Old Trafford.
But Villa has a lot at stake in this game and wants to avoid any form of upset against their wrestling hosts.
Here we dive into the best Opta insights prior to Sunday's collision.
What a last day we have in the store
Who will secure a top 5 -finish and qualify for the Champions League? pic.twitter.com/glwwoazbth
– Premier League (@premierleague) May 20, 2025
What is expected?
Champions League qualification is out of the hands of Villa because they need a fang elsewhere, and everything that is a victory is perhaps not enough for them.
They were held on a 0-0 draw by United earlier this season, with neither parties able to find an attacking rhythm in the stalemate in Villa Park.
Villa has earned eight points from their last seven Premier League matches against United (W2 D2 L3), as much as they had in their previous 31 (W1 D5 L25).
United, however, has won 40 Premier League matches against the Villans.
Only the Red Devils themselves have once defeated an opponent more often and defeated 42 times in the Everton competition.
Given the huge gap between the teams this season – Villa is 27 points above United in the table – the visitors are expected to earn the points on Sunday.
The OPTA super computer gives Villa a chance of 51.8% of the victory at Old Trafford.
The hope of United to sign their gloomy season with a victory, meanwhile, is 24.9%, with the chance that a draw is 23.3%.
From bad to worse
Amorim said after their Euroopa League defeat that he would walk away from the club if that is what the board wanted, but he would not stop. Reports suggest that this will not be his last game in the Old Trafford Dugout.
The 42nd minute goal of Brennan Johnson sealed their fate on Wednesday, and although they showed a little late fight, it was not enough to force extra time.
Wednesday was the 31st time in all competitions that United admitted the opening goal of the match in 2024-25, more than any other Premier League side.
It was their 20th defeat in all competitions this season, their most in one campaign since 22 in 1973-74 lost when they were relegated from the top flight.
That cannot happen this year, but United can only end up to 14th, depending on what happens on the last day. But whatever happens, it will be their lowest placement ever in the Premier League.
United is currently on an eight-match Winless Streak in the top flight (D2 L6) and losing the last three in a row. It is their longest run without a competition gain since November 1989 and January 1990 (11), while she last lost four in a row in the same season in February 1979.
If their losing series extends, it will see them record their 19th Premier League defeat. Since 1933-34 (22/42 in the second layer) they have lost no more than half of their games in a single competition season, while they last did this in the top flight in 1930-31 (27/42).
They will also end the competition season without winning two games in a row is only the third time in the club's history that they have gone a whole competition campaign without winning back-to-back games (also in 1893-94 and 1921-22).
On a more positive note for Amorim, only Arsenal (23) have won their final Premier League match of the season more often than United (22), while they also have the lowest loss percentage of each team to compete in at least 10 campaigns (12.5% ​​- 4/32).
All or nothing
As mentioned, Villa relies on results elsewhere, but they still have a job at Old Trafford if they want to stay in the mix, especially with Nottingham Forest and Chelsea opposite each other on the city.
The reversal in the past three months was impressive, hardly on the edge of the European places with Villa before they were contrary.
They can end everywhere between third and seventh, but get a chance of 42.6% to finish in the top five.
However, that is slightly lower than their chances of ending sixth (42.9%), their current position in the table.
Villa is in good shape and wins nine of their last 11 Premier League matches (L2), only one fewer than opponents who won United throughout the season (10).
Since the beginning of March, Villa has even won 24 points in the Premier League of their nine games (W8 L1), more than any other side in that period.
In general, they have won this period 19 league games and can win 20+ in successive top campaigns for the first time since 1930-31 (three in a row).
Their 2-0 win over Tottenham previous time-out marked the 100th Premier League match of Emery de Luidel, with the Spaniard 54 winning, eight more than any other Villa boss in their first 100 top matches.
But he knows that the next one could be the most important, but history is not on Villa's side on the last day of the season, when away from home.
The last 26 times they only won once that their last league match of the season was not played on Home Turf (D7 L18) and won 3-1 in Chelsea in 2001-02.
After having ended the past season with a crushing 5-0 defeat in Crystal Palace, Villa is to write a more positive end this time.
Players to watch
Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes is the top scorer of United in the Premier League this season with eight goals.
The last time the Red Devils had no player to reach double digits in a single top campaign was 1973-74, when Sammy McIlroy was their top scorer with six.
In an otherwise disappointing campaign, he has often provided the spark for United.
He has 36 targets for all competitions (19 goals, 17 assists), with 17 of those who come to the Premier League (also nine assists).
Aston Villa – Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers has more Premier League assists this season than any other villa player (10).
Only three players have ever yielded more in one campaign for the Villans-Asley Young in 2007-08 (14), Ollie Watkins in 2023-24 (13) and James Milner in 2009-10 (12).
That trek comes from an expected assists (XA) count of 5.24, while in general he has created 52 opportunities, with only Youri Tielemans (60) earned more.
All those opportunities come from open game and are at least 16 more than any other villa player.