On the eve of the second North London derby of the season, grumblings of discontent are audible among supporters of both Arsenal and Tottenham.
Although Mikel Arteta's Gunners are stable enough in the Premier League and appear the most likely team to benefit if runaway leaders Liverpool make a mistake, successive defeats in the domestic cups have left them facing the prospect of a fifth season without trophies in a row.
Trailing by two goals midway through the EFL Cup semi-final against Newcastle United and after the FA Cup, Arsenal have come under heavy criticism in recent days.
Tottenham, meanwhile, has its own problems. Ange Postecoglou's men lead their own EFL Cup semi-final against Liverpool and advanced to the FA Cup by beating Tamworth on Sunday, but have won just one of their last eight league games and sit 12th in the table.
The two neighbors will battle at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday in what could be one of their most important encounters in recent years.
But where is the game heading and what are the key storylines to pay attention to? Read on for our Opta-powered preview.
“We go to Wednesday, a new opportunity for us, probably also at the right time to get what we deserve, to perform again and to give our supporters what they deserve as well.”
Mikel Arteta is keen to move on and prepare for our upcoming Premier League derby in North London
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) January 12, 2025
What is expected?
As the only team that has not yet lost a home game in the Premier League this season, Arsenal goes into this match as big favorites.
Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the Opta supercomputer, Arsenal won 64.7% and were defeated in only 18.4%, while the remaining 16.9% finished completely square.
Arsenal have won six of their last eight league games against Spurs (one draw, one defeat) and are looking to win three in a row for the first time since January 1989 (a run of five).
After their 1-0 away win in September, Arsenal could complete their fifth Premier League double against Tottenham. However, this was only achieved in 2013/2014, without conceding in either match.
Tottenham have won just one of their last 31 away Premier League games against Arsenal, drawing 12 and losing 18, while they are also winless in 13 games away to the Emirates since a 3-2 win in November 2010.
Is Havertz the answer?
Although Arsenal have the Premier League's best defensive record in the 2024/25 season with just 18 goals conceded, their shortcomings at the other end of the pitch are well documented.
Arsenal averaged 1.75 expected goals (xG) per Premier League match in 2024-25, lower than their figures from 2023-24 (2.04) and 2022-23 (1.9). The fact that they have been without Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka for a period due to injuries has not helped matters, but the problem in recent weeks has not been creating chances, but throwing them away.
They dominated against Newcastle and Manchester United in last week's cup ties, scoring 3.22 expected goals (xG) in each match, but only scoring once, underperforming their combined figures at 5.44.
3.22 – Arsenal scored the same expected number of goals in each of their last two games against Newcastle United and Manchester United (3.22), but scored just once, performing 5.4 goals short of their xG. Failed. pic.twitter.com/TI0OBDYaV6
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) January 13, 2025
Kai Havertz has come under particular criticism in recent days for missing a host of chances in Arsenal's cup defeats.
During these two matches, Havertz attempted nine shots, all from inside the penalty area, for a total of 1.91 xG. There were several glaring misses in those attempts, while he was also the only player to fail to convert in the penalty shoot-out against United.
Havertz's underlying numbers in the Premier League this season don't make for terrible numbers, with the former Chelsea man scoring seven times from 7.81 xG for a marginal underperformance.
However, of all the players to score at least five times in the league this season, only Brennan Johnson, Antoine Semenyo and Morgan Rogers have hit the target with fewer shots than Havertz (50%).
Havertz is the only Arsenal player with more than five league goals in 2024/25, but many are questioning whether he is clinical enough to lead a title challenge. But for now, Arteta may not have much choice.
Gabriel Jesus was taken off on a stretcher against United, while Saka remains absent for a long time. Havertz is likely to be in charge again when Spurs visit, with each of his last 11 Premier League goals coming in London. The last Arsenal player to have such a longer streak was Lukas Podolski between December 2012 and April 2014 (12).
Arteta will hope the comforts of home can bring the best out of Havertz on Wednesday.
Ange's adjustment?
“It's just who we are, mate,” Postecoglou declared after his Tottenham side were beaten 4-1 by Chelsea in November 2023, having adopted a bold high line despite being reduced to nine men. The main criticism of Postecoglou since his arrival in England has focused on his refusal to adapt his principles in the name of results.
Those cries have reached a fever pitch in recent weeks, with Tottenham taking just five points from their last eight Premier League games, with their only win in that period coming against bottom club Southampton. Saints (one) and Leicester City (four) are the only teams to score fewer points in that time.
Although Tottenham survived a huge scare when they were sent into extra time by Tamworth in the FA Cup on Sunday, last week's EFL Cup first leg victory over Liverpool might have shown there is another side to Ange-ball ?
Spurs had just 39.9% of possession in their 1-0 win over the Reds, their fourth lowest share in all games under Postecoglou.
They played more long balls (49) and a higher proportion of their passes long (11.7%) against Liverpool than in any other match this season, with Lucas Bergvall's winner coming after such a pass from Pedro Porro.
Tottenham still wanted to keep up the pressure, but their urge to play from the back was tempered by the realization that Liverpool are exceptional in the counter-press. A similar approach could pay off on Wednesday, especially with defenders Destiny Udogie, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven and Ben Davies still sidelined.
Only Southampton (36) and Aston Villa (23) have made more mistakes leading to shots in the Premier League this season than Spurs (21), marking a change in the way they build up against the league's best teams was too late.
However, Tottenham have scored the most goals due to opposition mistakes (11) in the Premier League this season, so don't expect them to take away the press.
As a team, Spurs have exerted more pressure in the final third than any other team in the Premier League this season (1,321). Striker Dominic Solanke leads the way among all players, with his total of 386 over 100 more than the next highest (Erling Haaland, 275).
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Arsenal – Martin Odegaard
Odegaard had a penalty saved by Altay Bayindir as Arsenal and Man United were drawn 1-1 on Sunday and he will be desperate to get back here.
Only Saka (42) and Declan Rice (29) have created more chances for Arsenal than Odegaard (27) in the Premier League this season, despite the Norwegian being limited to 13 appearances.
Tottenham-Son Heung-min
Son has a solid record in North London derbies, only scoring more Premier League goals against Southampton (11), Leicester and Crystal Palace (nine each) than he has against Arsenal (seven).
Meanwhile, no player has provided more assists after carrying the ball in the Premier League this season than Son (five). His next assist will make him the outright assist leader for Spurs in the Premier League (currently 68, equal to Darren Anderton).
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