The Champions League promotion on Wednesday is supplied by the second stage of the last-16 draw by Atletico Madrid against Cross-City Rivals Real Madrid, which stays firmly in the balance.
Rodrygo and Julian Alvarez exchanged spectacular first half last week in the Santiago Bernabeu, before the fine individual effort by Brahim Diaz Madrid gave a 2-1 lead to protect.
Los Blancos has not made the habit of giving up the leads in the first leg in Europe Premier Club competition over the years.
Indeed, they are advanced from 21 of their last 22 Champions League-Knock-Out tires when winning the first stage, the exception is in this phase in 2018-19 against Ajax.
Under Carlo Ancelotti, Madrid is advanced from all nine of their Champions League tires when protecting an advantage of the first leg.
But Atleti have been a thorn in the side of their more illustrious neighbors for a while.
They were the only team that defeated Los Blancos in Laliga last season and also dumped them from the Copa del Rey, while they have earned this period two 1-1 resembles against their rivals in League Action.
Diego Simeone will certainly not allow his side to roll, and he said that Kylian Mbappe's failure to find Vinicius Junior for a late tap-in in the first stage, may have opened the door “for an Athleti Fightback.
No love has been lost between these two neighbors and fireworks is expected in the Metropolitano Stadium.
Brahim Díaz's only before the winner #ucl pic.twitter.com/LL0E9G6OMN scores
– UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) 7 March 2025
What is expected?
The OPTA Supercomputer makes Real Madrid favorites to continue to a likely quarter-final draw with Arsenal.
Los Blancos get a chance of 34.6% to win the second stage within 90 minutes, with 39.6% of the simulations that Atletico's Way and 25.8% are drawn.
In general, the Ancelotti team reaches the last eight in 72.4% of the projections, while Athleti does this in 27.6%.
Real Madrid has won the earlier tires of the Knockout phases of the European Cup/Champions League or originated from all five of the teams, including definitive victories in 2014 and 2016. They also won two-legged ties between the teams in 1958-59, 2016-17.
But Atleti has recently has a solid record against their rivals, especially on a home floor, which only loses one of their last seven home games against Madrid (three wins, three draws).
The men of Simeone are also unbeaten in the last five derby's in cup competitions on their own ground, win four and draw one; A 4-2 extra time victory in the Copa del Rey last January.
Will Fortress Metropolitano be firm?
When asked about the impact of Atleti that organizes the second stage, Simeone said: “It's always a stimulus, our people push us and give us energy.”
Few places are more difficult to go as a visiting team than the Metropolitano, where Los Colchoneros has an incredible record in Europe.
Since March 1997, Atletico Madrid has not lost Champions League -Knock -Out match in one of their home stadiums -either the Metropolitano or their former house in the Vicente Calderon.
Atleti have been unbeaten in 18 of such matches (11 victories, seven draws) since that 3-2 quarter-final defeat against Ajax, a match in which Simeone started in midfield for them.
Since she lost 3-1 to Lille in the group stage of this competition in October, they are unbeaten in 12 home games in all competitions, they win 10 and signs two, while only admitted three times in their last eight.
In the meantime, Real Madrid has won only three of their last 17 trips to Atletico (seven draws, seven losses), since winning eight Derbies in a row between 2008 and 2014.
Atletico's wild support of their home fans will undoubtedly give a boost, and they also have a series of memorable European comebacks to look back for inspiration.
Atletico has lost the first stage in six previous knockout tires for Champions League and have been restored to claim three of them, with all three cases coming home in the second stage under Simeone.
They defeated Bayer Leverkusen in a penalty shoot-out in the last 16 in 2014-15, overcome Barcelona 3-2 to total in the quarterfinals 2015-16 and eliminated Inter on Spotkicks in this stage last season.
Don Carlo hopes to celebrate Landmark
The most successful coach in the history of Champions League will bring up a milestone on Wednesday and he will hope to celebrate it with a safe passage to the last eight.
This will be the 75th Champions League match of Ancelotti who is responsible for Madrid, a figure that has not reached another coach with Los Blancos in the history of the European Cup/Champions League.
The 74 games of the Italian are already three more than the legendary Miguel Munoz in two spells at the helm between 1959 and 1974.
Ancelotti-Die also supervised 73 matches in the competition with AC Milan, 18 with Chelsea, each with Bayern Munich and Napoli, and 10 with both Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain-Zal are just the eighth coach who produce 75 matches with a single team.
Alex Ferguson (190 with Manchester United), Arsene Wenger (177 with Arsenal), Simeone (114 with Atletico), Pep Guardiola (95 with Manchester City), Valeriy Lobanovskyi (80 with Dynamo Kyiv), Marcello Lippi (76 with Juvento (76 with Juvento) Bayern) Have So So.
The side of Ancelotti rarely looked so running in Europe, with an average of 2.55 goals per match in the Champions League this season. Only in one campaign under Italian (3.15 during his first spell in 2013-14) do they have on average more average, and it is their best figure in the competition since 2016-17 (2,77).
While Vinicius and Mbappe have led the road for Los Blancos with seven goals each in the competition this campaign, Rodrygo is also five chipped.
His opener on the first leg was his 25th Champions League strike for Madrid, making him the fourth-year-old player (24 years old, 54 days) to score 25 for a single team in the competition, behind Lionel Messi for Barcelona (226 days), Madrid for Madrid (22 years, 352 days).
Players to watch
Atletico Madrid – Julian Alvarez
Alvarez scored with a beautiful attack from the left corner of the box in the first stage and continued its fine shape in the Champions League.
The Argentinian has been involved in at least one goal for each of his last five European performances for Atletico, scored six goals and assists one during that period.
The only two Argentinian players who score or assist in six in a row in the Champions League are Claudio Lopez (six right in 1999 for Valencia) and Messi (eight in 2011-12 and six in 2014 for Barcelona).
Simeone's response says it all #ucl pic.twitter.com/qrfop6fk3j
– UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) 7 March 2025
Real Madrid – Luka Modric
In what is probably a red-hot atmosphere in the Metropolitano, control will be the key to the 15-way European champions, which means that the metronomic Modric could play a role.
The Croatian can also make a difference in the future; It is an average of 17.7 line -breaking steps per 90 minutes in the Champions League this season, most of each player who plays at least 300 minutes.
Only two Real Madrid players made more such steps than Modric (Acht) in the first stage, even though he only got off the bank in the 62nd minute.
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