The Numbers Game: Can Van Nistelrooy pounce on Amorim’s home discomforts?

There is a reunion on the cards when Ruud van Nistelrooy takes his wrestling Leicester City team to Old Trafford for a FA Cup fourth round collision with Manchester United on Friday.

It was only last summer that Van Nistelrooy was appointed as the then assistant coach of the United Boss Erik ten Hag. Fast forward to the end of October, and Van Nistelrooy was pushed into Old Trafford in Interim after the resignation of his Dutch countryman.

He was in charge of four games in all competitions, and two of them came home against Leicester-De Red Devils won 5-2 in the EFL Cup and then 3-0 in the Premier League.

Van Nistelrooy was then out the door after Ruben Amorim who took over as a full -time boss – but was not without work.

Steve Cooper was fired by Leicester and the Foxes confirmed Van Nistelrooy as their new manager.

However, it is fair to say that it has not yet been to plan for Van Nistelrooy of Amorim, and the FA Cup can provide a welcome distraction for both.

We dive into the figures prior to Friday's collision.

A #facup night under the lights #mufc pic.twitter.com/qa1heh7hbg

– Manchester United (@manutd) February 5, 2025

What is expected?

United are the big favorites to continue to Round Five, with the OPTA Supercomputer handing them a profit of 65.9%.

Leicester came at the top of only 15.6% of our data -led simulations, while the chance of a draw is 18.5%.

United never won three home games against one club in one season, with Manchester City against Chelsea in 2022-23 the last time that a Premier League side did against a fellow top-flight opponent.

This is the fourth FA Cup meeting between United and Leicester-De Red Devils won the first two (3-1 in the final of 1962-63, 2-1 in the fifth round of 1975-76) while the foxes with 3- 1 won in the most recent game in the quarterfinals of 2020-21 on the way to lifting the trophy.

After a point of five games without a victory against Leicester between December 2020 and April 2022, United has now won their last four meetings with the Foxes with a total score of 12-2.

Leaky Leicester

Van Nistelrooy's first reunion with his former club as a coach comes on the back of a scorching version and results against Everton in the competition. Leicester lost 4-0 in Goodison Park, where they gave the fourth good goal in the Premier League history to Abdoulaye Doucoure.

That goal was also the 50th Leicester who sent this period in the competition. After 24 games it is the earliest if they have admitted for half a century of goals in the top flight since 1959-60, when they did this in their 23rd game.

The humiliating defeat on Saturday came after Leicester had been struck to claim a moral reinforcement of 2-1 victory in Tottenham, but that was a victory that they didn't bump into.

They are now in the lower three, two points of safety, and Van Nistelrooy has won only three games since he took over.

One of those victories came in the third round of the FA Cup – a 6-2 thrashing from Queens Park Rangers.

The Foxes won this famous trophy among Brendan Rodgers in 2021, and although the opportunities are not in their favor prior to this draw, they have some reasons to be positive.

Ruben's false start

It is far from just sailing for Amorim since he replaced Ten Hag, with United struggling at home.

United had won three consecutive games, but lost 2-0 to Crystal Palace on Sunday and suffered from their seventh home defeat of the season in the top layer. It is their joint home losses in this phase of a competition campaign, joint with 1893-94.

Since the beginning of last season, only Wolves (16) have lost more Premier League matches than United (13).

7 – This season Manchester United has lost seven of their first 13 home games in the Premier League; Their joint city in this phase of a competition campaign, together with 1893-94 (also seven). Nightmare. pic.twitter.com/u7vhhkddtt

– Optajoe (@Optajoe) 2 February 2025

There is certainly hope for Leicester, who came from seven of their last eight FA Cup fourth round tires, a 4-1 removed against Nottingham Forest in 2021-22 the exception.

United has won 16 and signed two of their last 18 FA Cup-home competitions, but with Arsenal the last side to win in this competition in Old Trafford, a 2-1 win in March 2015. Middlesbrough also won on penalties after a 1 -1 sign in February 2022.

The Red Devils are 13th in the top flight and qualify for Europe through the competition looks a pipe dream, so a run in the cup can be crucial.

Players to watch

Manchester United – Amad Diallo

Amorim has not yet succeeded in removing consistent versions from his team, although Diallo has been a persistent clear spark. He created six chances against Palace on Sunday, his joint highest figure in a Premier League match (equal to the six he created against Southampton in September).

Since Amorim's first match on 24 November, Diallo has scored six goals and provided five assists.

His counting of 11 target contributions is two more than one of his united teammates at the time, while only Bruno Fernandes (46) has created more opportunities than Diallo (33) in all competitions under Amorim.

Leicester City – Jamie Vardy

Vardy only had nine touches against Everton before he was immersed in the 60th minute, but if he gets the service, the veteran campaigner is always a threat.

In 16 games against United in all competitions, Vardy scored 19 goals, so the Red Devils will have to be alert to his threat.

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