Paris Saint-Germain has been one of the two most impressive teams in Europe this season and they have set their sights in a place in the Champions League final.
Arsenal, however, stands in the way.
The PSG team of Luis Enrique has perhaps lost their undefeated run in Ligue 1 after a club record 30 games without defeat, but their full focus was at their semi-final against the Gunners.
The early goal of Ousmane Dembele turned out to be decisive last week in the first stage in Emirates Stadium, and it means that PSG has the lead because they welcome the men of Mikel Arteta in the Parc des Princes on Wednesday.
With Inter and Barcelona who plays an exciting 3-3 draw in the first stage of the other semi-final, Opta's supercomputer PSG makes the favorites to continue and win the trophy this season.
PSG, who, just like Luis Enrique's old team Barca, could possibly win a Treble this season, comes at the top of 42% of the tournament simulations of the model.
But they have never won this competition before, and Luis Enrique will certainly insist against some complacency, especially seen what Arsenal did with Real Madrid in the quarterfinals.
After all, there is only one goal in it.
Here, with the help of Opta Insights, we look at the enormous collision on Wednesday in Paris.
What is expected?
Both PSG and Arsenal offer to reach their second European Cup/Champions League final, with the French side doing this in 2019-2020 and the Gunners in 2005-06.
When winning the first stage of a European draw away from home, PSG was only eliminated once (US Manchester United in 2018-19), while the Gunners were never claimed when losing the first stage at home.
PSG receives a chance of winning of 45.4%, while their total chances of continuing out of the draw are ranked on a healthy 80%.
The hope of Arsenal to make the final, then a slim is on the five, although the Opta de Gunners model gives a 30% chance of winning for the second stage. A victory would of course not necessarily be sufficient to see them, with fines required if the draw on aggregated at the level of the tire ends.
PSG's 1-0 win The first stage was their first victory ever in six attempts against Arsenal (D3 L2).
Both home games against the Gunners were 1-1 (March 1994, September 2016).
In the meantime, Arsenal has now lost their last two visits against Rennes in 2019 and Lens in 2023.
The Gunners were previously unbeaten in their first 13 -matches against French parties in all competitions (W8 D5).
The best in the neighborhood?
Beyond the days of superstar names such as Kylian Mbappe, Neymar and Lionel Messi at PSG, but in their absence, Luis Enrique has built a formidable machine.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Dembele have provided the star power, but Desire Doue, Bradley Barcola and Goncalo Ramos are hardly ahead to be mocked.
In midfield, Vitinha, Fabian Ruiz and Joao Neves have been fantastic, with the last 51 tackles made in this season's Champions League, most by a midfielder in a season since Arturo Vidal in 2014-15 (52). He also applied 756 high pressure to opponents in 2024-25, more than 100 more than any other player.
At the back Marquinhos has drawn up a defense with the brilliant full-back combination of Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes.
Behind them, Gianluigi Donnarumma has shown its quality in the Champions League. He made a number of major rescues in the first stage and was brilliant in the quarterfinals against Aston Villa.
With the help of the expected goals of Opta on Target attributed metric, we can see that the Italian goalkeeper has prevented 1.8 goals in the competition this season, from 42 shots (excluding fines or own goals).
PSG is the second highest score team in Europe's top five competitions in all competitions this period, with their 135 rankings behind only Barca's 160.
But the Luis Enrique team has actually registered the highest expected goals (133), while they have had 1,012 shots, 42 more than the next best Real Madrid (970).
Only Bayern Munich (68%) has on average more possession than PSG (67.5%), but as their Schottelling shows, it has been a matter of possession with a goal for the French giants.
Award for glory
PSG has won three of their last four home matches in the Champions League and has received 14 goals in those three victories.
However, they have lost twice this season in Parc des Princes (vs Liverpool and Atletico Madrid), so Arsenal should certainly not feel that all hope is lost, especially in view of the fact that Arsenal has won each of their last four away games in the Champions League – the Gunners have never won five on the road about all European competition.
Only two teams have once reached the final of the Champions League after they have lost the first stage of their semi-final draw at home, with Ajax that overcomes Panathinaikos in 1995-96, and Arsenal's Rivals Tottenham do the same against Ajax in 2018-19.
The impressive victories of Arsenal on Madrid in the final round were built on solid defensive foundations and expect that that area of ​​the field is again crucial for Arteta.
Of the teams to reach the quarterfinals of the Champions League, Arsenal has the lowest expected goals against (XGA) figure in the competition this season (11.8). PSGs XGA, on the other hand, is 15.2.
But Arsenal cannot afford to just lean back. At a certain moment they will have to chase the game, and that could be when they are most vulnerable to PSG's sizzling counterattacks.
Players to watch
PSG – Ousmane Dembele
Dembele was an injury problem last week, but on Monday the attacker returned to the training.
He has been fantastic this season, scored 33 goals in all competitions and chip with another 10 assists. From players in Europe's top five competitions, only Mohamed Salah (56), Raphinha (53) and Kane (46) have more target contributions in all competitions registered than Dembele's 43.
The winner of Dembele in the first stage was his eighth goal in the Champions League this season-all Zlatan Ibrahimovic scored more in one campaign for PSG (10 in 2013-14).
PSG has made 150 line -breaking steps that this season broke the line of defense in the Champions League, only second place against Bayern (156). Of these, 25 were made by Dembele, the joint of each player this campaign.
Arsenal – Declan Rice
In addition to completing the joint passes on both teams in the first stage (50), Rice made the most line -breaking passes in the last third (six).
This season he leads all Gunners players in the Champions League for line-breaking steps that lead to both shots (seven) and goals (three).
Rice's versions This season have seen him cement his place under the elite midfielders of the world, with his few sensational free kicks that set Arsenal on his way to beating Madrid in the quarterfinals.
Arteta still needs an enormous performance of the English international on Wednesday.