James Tarkowski's Last-Gasp Volley left Liverpool in a dramatic conclusion in the last Merseyside Derby in Goodison Park in February.
Timed at 97:07, it was the second lightest goal that Liverpool admitted in the Premier League, since OPTA started recording such data in 2006-07, after a strike by Robin van Persie for Arsenal in April 2011 (97:10).
A long VAR check did not do much to cool the frenzy in Goodison Park, where the temperatures have been cooked full-time.
Curtis Jones and Abdoulaye Doucoure saw Red, just like Arne Slot and his assistant Sipke Hulshoff.
The Merseyside Derby has produced more red cards than any other fixture in the Premier League history (25), with the 17 Reds of the Toffees against the Reds, also the most team against another in the competition, so it is not surprising that there was a little feistiness.
Slot later admitted that he should not have losing his cool, and now the Dutchman will be out to keep his calmness while Liverpool welcomes their neighbors in Anfield, where they only lost once to Everton in the 21st century.
The side of David Moyes, however, is unbeaten in nine league games, which has been the longest run in Everton since the 2016-17 season, under Ronald Koeman.
Everton went for the last longer without defeat in December 2013 (10 games). In fact, it is their longest unbeaten run that has been a league match with Liverpool since February 2010 (also nine), when they lost 1-0 at Anfield, with Moyes at the helm on that occasion too.
So this will not be an easy task for Liverpool, whose wiggling for the international break they saw them stop the Champions League and losing softly to Newcastle United in the EFL Cup final.
However, the Reds are running away leaders in the top flight and will be ready after a break of two and a half weeks and like to go.
Here we dive in the OPTA data prior to Wednesday's collision.
What is expected?
Anfield has hardly been a happy hunting ground for Everton. However, there may be a good omen for the toffees.
For the last time she avoided the defeat in both Premier League meetings with the Reds in the same season in 2020-21. In that campaign, the Goodison Derby 2-2 was signed, before Everton won by Carlo Ancelotti 2-0 in Anfield, with Richarlison and Gylfi Sigurdsson on Doel, and James Rodriguez who pulled the strings in midfield.
And Everton was perhaps the better team for a large part of their most recent meeting, with more shots (10 to six) and Liverpool limited to only 0.62 expected goals – that is the lowest XG – total that the Reds have had in a league match this season.
However, the Toffees seemed to have been undone by a moment of magic of Mohamed Salah, before Tarkowski hit home for a memorable final.
Twenty-six of the 65 Premier League meetings between Everton and Liverpool have been signed, with only Chelsea versus Man United finish level more often in the competition (27).
Everton has indeed also drawn more Premier League matches than any other side this season (13), including each of their last four in a row.
But our model does not predict a draw as a probably result, whereby the match finishing level in 18.9% of the simulations guided by data.
Liverpool's chance of winning comes on a healthy 66.3%, while Everton only gets a 14.8% chance of taking the three points.
A happy derby -hunting area
From 120 Derbies in Goodison Park the awards are even: both parties have won 41 each of those luminaires (D38).
But in Anfield the record is more one -sided, especially in modern times.
Liverpool has won their last three Premier League home matches against Everton, each with a 2-0 score. They last won more consecutive Home League Merseyside Derbies between 1990 and 1994 (five), while they have never done this without admitting.
Liverpool has indeed only lost one of their last 24 Premier League matches against Everton (W14 D9) and won five of the last six in Anfield.
Liverpool is 99 victories in this fixture. If they win this competition, it is the fifth time that an English competition side has defeated 100 times since the founding of the Football League in 1888 (Arsenal 111 vs Everton, Manchester United 106 vs Aston Villa, Liverpool 103 vs Aston Villa, Arsenal City City).
The team from Slot has also been fantastic this term and only lost one league match, in which that defeat comes to Nottingham Forest in September. They won 11 times in Anfield in the competition and scored 31 goals.
No team in the division has won so many home games or scored as many home goals as the Reds.
Everton then seems to have their work cut if they want to keep their undefeated line.
There is a long time coming?
On the other hand, there are plates to be broken and Moyes has a fairly unique record that he will want to break when the game runs around on Wednesday.
None of his 19 Premier League matches has won None of his Premier League matches, the joint master who confronted every manager with an opponent on the road without a single victory in the competition.
It is remarkable that that is a record that he shares with himself. He also went 19 Premier League road matches against Chelsea without getting a single victory.
In his first enchantment in Everton, Moyes attracted six of his 11 competition visits to Anfield (L5), including his last in May 2013 (0-0).
And he hardly has a great record against the Reds when invoicing in home games. Moyes has indeed won only four of his 38 Premier League matches against Liverpool (D10 L24), a profit percentage of only 10.5% – his lowest against every opponent in the competition.
The Moyes team has shown a lot of resilience to keep their undefeated point in recent weeks, with Jake O'Brien popping up with late equalizers against both Brentford and West Ham.
11 – Only Alex Ferguson (27) and Arsène Wener (15) have been appointed Prime Minister League manager of the month more times than David Moyes (11), who won the prize for the first time since March 2013 during his first spell as Everton Boss. Return. pic.twitter.com/ddpylblv47
– Optajoe (@Optajoe) March 14, 2025
However, Everton's most important threat remains from set pieces, even if they have improved in open game since the arrival of Moyes in January.
This season, the Toffees scored 41% of their Premier League goals of non-Pinalty Set-Pieces (13/32), a competition-high ratio, so Liverpool will have to be wary of such situations-no-acting, Beto's opener in the trekking at Goodison came.
Liverpool, on the other hand, has scored the lowest part of their goals in the competition this season of non-Penalty-Set only plays 6% (4/69).
Players to watch
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah was directly involved in eight goals in his last seven Premier League Merseyside Derbies (six goals, two assists), both scoring and assisting in the reverse fixture of this season in Goodison Park. The only players who score and help with both Premier League matches against Everton in one season are Chris Sutton in 1993-94 and Alan Shearer in 1994-95.
Only Steven Gerrard (nine) has scored more Premier League goals in Merseyside Derbies than Salah (eight). As it looks now, this will be the last performance of the Egyptian in this famous fixture, so he will be out to surpass Gerrard's record.
Salah is going to chase some large Premier League records in the run-in. He is nine goals from matching Erling Haaland's competition-best trek of 46 goals in one season, while Salah is only three target contributions, equal to the single-season record of 47, determined by Shearer and Andrew Cole, and both affect that figure in 42-game campaigns.
Everton – Beto
Although Dwight McNeil and Iliman Ndiaye have now returned to the training, Dominic Calvert-Lewin remains out of action for Everton, which means that Beto will again lead the line for the visitors.
Since the beginning of February, Beto has yielded five Premier League goals, a total that was improved by only Salah's eight.
However, his finish can be erratic, as is apparent from a shot conversion rate of 25%. Although certainly respectable, against the other four players who have scored at least four Premier League goals since the beginning of February, the conversion rate of the former Udinese attacker is the poorest.
Beto has just not found it since he scored in a 2-2 draw against Manchester United on 22 February, who did not score in each of his last three performances, so a return to score form would certainly be welcome for Everton.
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