The Numbers Game: In-form Aston Villa take aim at Ligue 1 champions PSG

Paris Saint-Germain closed the Ligue 1 title last weekend and closed what an inevitable procession had become with a 1-0 win over Angers.

They are unbeaten in Ligue 1 this season, with their 28-game run a club record.

PSG still has to go five games without defeat in the French top flight, and they will surpass the record of 32, set by Nantes in 1994-95.

But now their focus will be on the Champions League and a quarter-final draw with In-Form Aston Villa.

The Unai Emery team urges a top-four finish in the Premier League, are in the semi-final of the FA Cup and enjoy a sparkling European campaign.

We should then have a fascinating match-up.

Here we dive into the most important facts and statistics.

What is expected?

PSG is made the favorites to win the first stage, which came at the top 64.2% of the simulations of the OPTA super computer.

There is a 19.3% chance of a draw and a 16.5% chance that Villa takes a lead to Villa Park.

However, PSG are also the favorites to continue the draw as a whole. In fact, only Barcelona (78%) gets a greater chance of reaching the semi -final than PSG (71%).

Barca is the only team that gets more of the chance to go all the way this season than PSG, who have a probability of 19% to end their waiting time for European glory.

Villas 29% chance to make the last four ranking for only Borussia Dortmund (22%).

This is the first competitive encounter between PSG and Villa, with this only the second quarter final of the Champions League between French and English parties in the past eight seasons (Manchester City 1-3 Lyon in a draw in 2019-20-20 hours).

This season, Villa will be the fourth other English team that PSG has confronted in the Champions League this season (also Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool).

These are the joint opponents of one nation that a team played against in one campaign from the European Cup/Champions League, together with Leeds United in 2000-01 (four Spanish parties) and Real Madrid in 2023-24 (four German parties).

Prior to eliminating Liverpool in the last 16, PSG had left the competition in each of their last three knockout stage meetings with English teams (V Manchester City in 2015-16 and 2020-21 and Man United in 2018-19).

Villa, on the other hand, never won for a French opponent in the European competition (P5 D2 L3). The last two were both defeats under Emery and lost in Lille in April 2024 (1-2) and in Monaco in January of this year (0-1).

The children are fine

Liverpool boss Arne Slot, in the aftermath of the loss of his party, for PSG in the Tour of 16, suggested that the Luis Enrique team is the best in Europe.

The statistics also make a backup of the claim from Slot. From teams in Europe's top five competitions, only Barcelona (141) have scored more goals this season in all competitions than PSG (124). PSG has even registered the highest expected goals (118.61), while most shots (878), shots on goal (365) and the most big opportunities (235) are recorded.

They have won possession more times than any other team from Europe's top five competitions (267 times in all competitions). They are also only in second place for Bayern for the highest average possession share (67.25%).

PSG has won 21 of their 23 games and scored 73 goals in 2025 (all competitions). They have the most victories and goals of each team from Europe's top five competitions this calendar year.

This is a lean, mean attacking machine, and it is a built on the exuberance of youth, as well as a career-best form of Ousmane Dembele.

This season PSG has average the fifth-young starting XI in the Champions League (24, 242 days) and the youngest of each team that still stays in the tournament.

Dembele, however, is paramount in everything that PSG does so well. He scored seven goals in his last six Champions League matches, one more than in his previous 36 performances in the competition together.

Six of those seven goals, however, were scored in road races, so he could do with the switch from that form to the Parc des Princes.

The French International stands on 24 goals and two assists in all competitions in 2025. He has the most goals and total target involvement (26) of each player from Europe's top five competitions since the turn of the year.

Desire Done scored the title -winning goal of PSG on Saturday. He has been involved in 18 goals in all competitions in 2025 (nine goals, nine assists). In Europe top five competitions, he is only the second player who collects at least nine goals and at least nine assists this year in all competitions, after Raphinha (10 goals, 10 assists).

Will Emery and Asensio pay PSG?

Interesting sub-plots for this draw, are Emery against his former employers, while Marco Asensio will in shape hope to cause the damage to his parent club, who has made the decision to borrow the former real Madrid-Vleugel player to Villa in the winter window.

Emery has won only two of his 10 games against his fellow countryman Luis Enrique (D1 L7), with both victories in home fixtures.

This will be the first time they have been opposite each other since the 2016-17 campaign, when Barcelona of Luis Enrique came from 0-4 in the first stage to eliminate Emery's PSG in the Champions League Last 16 (6-1 victory in the second stage).

Attack could also be the best form of defense for Villa about this draw.

Only nine teams in Europe's top five competitions, in all competitions, have scored more goals than villas 37 in 2025. Since the turn of the year, only five of those teams have won more competitions in all competitions than the Villans (13).

For the first time since a 10-game extraction run, Villa has won seven consecutive games between March and April 2019 in all competitions in all competitions (during playing in the championship), and does this for the first time since March 1981 (seven).

Marcus Rashford has reached a form after his loan movement from Manchester United, while in Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins have other attackers of Top class.

Watkins (six goals, six assists) and Rogers (seven goals, five assists) both have 12 target involvement in all competitions in 2025.

Only PSG (Vier – Dembele, Bradley Barcola, Doue and Goncalo Ramos), Real Madrid (Four – Mbappe, Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Junior) and Barcelona (Vier – Raphinha, Robert Lewandowski, Ferran Torres and Lamal Torres have more players have more players Torres Torres and Lamal Torres and Lamal Torres and Lamal's Figran.

Players to watch

PSG – Vitinha

More than half (52%) of Villa's chances created in the Champions League this season comes from the middle third of the field; The highest percentage on each side. In the meantime, the Emery team has admitted the least general opportunities from the Middle Third Third Derm (12).

So, getting a foot in midfield becomes the key, and in Vitinha PSG only has the player for it.

This season he completed 93% of his passes under high intensity pressure in the Champions League this season (544/586)-the highest completion rate of each midfielder in the competition (min. 100 attempt). The Portuguese international also leads all players for line-breaking passes in the knockout phases of the current tournament (77).

Aston Villa – Marco Asensio

Asensio would like to show PSG what they are missing, and can even prove that they should keep it in the club next season (although Villa may have something to say about that).

The Spain International already has nine target contributions for its temporary club (eight goals, one assist) and has scored three goals in two Champions League performances for Villa (both as a replacement), after he has not scored in 10 games for PSG in the competition.

If he finds the net in this game, 2024-25 would be his best return in a single campaign in the competition.

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