The Numbers Game: Leicester scrapping to stay up as Liverpool close in on glory

Two seemingly inevitable results are almost for us.

Leicester City is destined for an immediate return to the championship, while Liverpool has long been sure to win the Premier League title.

Both events can take place at the King Power Stadium on Sunday, although one of them feels more likely than the other.

Leicester will have to achieve a surprising victory if they have to prevent relegation, at least a few days.

In the meantime, Liverpool could win the title with a victory, although only as Arsenal loses in Ipswich Town earlier in the day.

It would only be the sixth time that a party won the top title with five more games to be saved, with Liverpool in 2019-2020 the last occasion that happened, to win with seven games, which is a competition record.

Arne Slot is now looking to only become the fifth Premier League boss who won the title in his first season in the competition, and the first since Antonio Conte in 2016-17.

This week has been an emotional for the Reds, with the birthday of the disaster in Hillsborough that passed on Wednesday. They will want to capture it on the highest of high tones.

And it's hard to see how Leicester can disturb the opportunities here.

So let's dive into the most important pre-match statistics.

What is expected?

In this competition, the highest scorers of the competition visits the second lowest scorers of the division.

Liverpool has scored 74 goals, 12 more than any other team, of a competition of 70.79 expected goals.

Leicester has scored 27 goals of a competition-bearing 27.8 XG. Only three teams – Southampton, West Ham and Manchester United – have a lower shot conversion rate than the foxes (9.44%).

Ruud van Nistorrooy's team has also been bad at the back and gives 72 goals. So their chances look gloomy.

The OPTA Supercomputer agrees. Leicester came out as victors in only 10.9% of the data-conducted simulations of the model.

Liverpool, on the other hand, has a whopping 73.2% chance of profit.

Liverpool has won their last four Premier League matches against Leicester, while they did not score in one of their last 15 against the Foxes in the League, a 0-1 loss in December 2021.

In the meantime, Leicester has only won two of their last 13 Premier League matches against the Reds (D1 L10), with both victories that come home successively in 2021 (3-1 in February, 1-0 in December).

A Easter upright?

If there is a day on which a team might find some rescue, is it certainly on Easter Sunday?

Although Leicester's record on this day is not good.

Leicester has lost both competition matches on Easter Sunday and dropped 0-3 in West Ham in the second layer in 1993 and 1-2 in Newcastle United in the Premier League in 2022.

On the other hand, Liverpool has only lost one of their 10 league matches on Easter Sunday (W7 D2) and fell 3-0 in Manchester United in 2008.

Leicester at least ended their losing streak and scoreless run when they pulled 2-2 with Brighton the previous time-out. That marked the first time the foxes scored or defeated the defeat, in the top flight since January 26, when they defeated Tottenham 2-1.

But the Foxes have lost their last eight Home Premier League matches without scoring a single goal, a Recordrun in the history of top flight. Only six games have ever lost nine home games in a row in the top of the top, the most recent Southampton between November and March this season.

The Foxes want to prevent them from becoming the first side in the history of top flight that goes nine consecutive home games without scoring a goal.

In the history of the football competition in all divisions, only Mansfield Town (nine in the third level between August and December 1971) and Wolves (10 in the second layer between December 1984 and April 1985) have achieved this unwanted performance.

The special season of Salah is on the right track

A four-game run without a target contribution from Mohamed Salah led to the end of which he undoubtedly had in the Talisman of Liverpool.

And Salah quickly came back on track when he assisted the opener of Luis Diaz in the 2-1 victory of Liverpool near West Ham.

Salah has of course been the driving force behind Liverpool's spectacular league campaign, and he looks at a number of large records before the season is off.

He scored in all five of the Premier League matches of Liverpool against newly promoted parties this season (seven goals). No player in the history of the competition has scored in six separate games against promoted clubs in one campaign.

This season, the Egyptian is involved in 45 Premier League goals (27 goals, 18 assists), a record for a season of 38 games. The record of all time is 47, by Andrew Cole in 1993-94 and Alan Shearer in 1994-95 (both 34 goals, 13 assists).

If Salah scores on Sunday, he would set the record of one season for assets. He currently shares the record of 16 with Kevin Phillips (1999-2000) and Harry Kane (2022-23). Another help, and Salah would also stand on its own as the most Premier League assists on the road in a campaign, in which CESC Fabregas '11 of 2014-15 caught up.

And when it comes to target contributions of all time for one team, Salah (268) is only eight from the record of Wayne Rooney of 276 for Man United.

He could even match the 36 goals of Erling Haaland in one season if he was allowed to go for goal again.

What a season it was for the 32-year-old.

Players to watch

Leicester City – Stephy Mavididi

Leicester fans do not have much to cheer this season, but Stephy Mavididi has offered at least some spark.

Mavididi scored this season in four Premier League matches for Leicester, but still has to end on the winning side (D3 L1).

The only Foxes player who scores in more competitions without winning in a season is Mark Draper in 1994-95 (five).

Liverpool – Virgil van Dijk

Salah has now written his new Liverpool contract, and while Trent Alexander-Arnold seems to be leaving, it is expected that Captain Virgil van Dijk will soon sign new conditions.

He scored the winner of Liverpool against West Ham and set off late from the delivery of Alexis Mac Allister.

Van Dijk scored his 24th Premier League goal, most of every center-back since his debut in the competition in September 2015.

John Terry (27) is the only defender in the Premier League history with more cup of goals than Van Dijk (18), who caught up Sami Hyypia (17).

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