The Numbers Game: Liverpool and Arsenal look to bounce back

Around the center point in the Premier League season, it seemed that this match between Liverpool and Arsenal could be a title decision maker.

But it did not go all the way to plan for the side of Mikel Arteta when Liverpool stormed at the title and left Arsenal in their wake.

The Gunners have gotten stuck in recent weeks, with a semi-final exit from Champions League through the hands of Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday who ended their last hope for a trophy.

And on Sunday they will be confronted with giving an honorary guard to the Reds after they have missed the Premier League trophy for a third consecutive season.

They still have to secure second place, with a pack of teams that chase the Champions League qualification that starts to close among them.

In the meantime, Liverpool made a stumbling start of life as a champion, with a 3-1 defeat against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge who placed a bit of a damper at the start of their parade.

It was only their third loss the entire season, although only one of them came home, and the side of Arne Slot will now make a welcome return to Anfield, two weeks after completing the title against Tottenham.

With both teams that try to get their rhythm back for the last games of the season, we dive into the best Opta insights prior to Sunday's collision.

What is expected?

The last time these parties met in the Premier League in October, they only separated four points in the table. Now Liverpool has a whopping 15-point lead over the Gunners.

That match ended 2-2, with Mohamed Salah providing the Liverpool savior while helping them fight back to save the draw.

It was a result that extended the unbeaten run of Arsenal versus Liverpool to five Premier League matches (W2 D3).

It has been their longest run without defeat against Liverpool since a series of eight between October 2007 and April 2011.

However, Liverpool has been unbeaten in their last 14 home games against Arsenal in all competitions (W7 D7) since a 2-0 loss in the Premier League in September 2012.

And it is expected that they continue that streak with a victory on Sunday, because the OPTA -SUPERCOMPUTER gives them a 46.1% chance of victory.

The opportunities of Arsenal are now 28.2%, while the points are shared in the remaining 25.8% of the simulations for the competition.

Champions want to find Groove again

From the High of Thrashing Spurs to claim their 20th top-flight title, Liverpool was quickly returned to Earth by Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

They only became the fourth team that lost their first league match after being crowned Premier League champions, who did this for the second time, after they were also lost to Arsenal in 2019-20 -20.

Only two teams have both lost their next two Premier League matches in a season after they have already confirmed the title-Arsenal in 1997-98 and Chelsea in 2005-06.

In a boost for the Reds, however, they are back on Sunday on Sunday, where they have only lost once the entire season – a 1-0 defeat against Nottingham Forest in September.

In general, Liverpool has earned this period 44 points in Anfield in the Premier League and so far he won 14 of their 17 games.

Against Chelsea, and Fulham in their other recent defeat, Liverpool showed some unusual female, of which Slot will remedy this weekend.

Liverpool has scored its own goal in two of their last four Premier League matches, as often as they did in their 87 league matches earlier (Jarell Quansah against Chelsea and Andy Robertson versus West Ham).

Virgil van Dijk, who played an unfortunate role in both goals, will be the one who wants to march his defense, but he can play an just as large part on the other side if he showed Chelsea by scoring the only goal of Liverpool's match.

Only John Terry (19) and Dion Dublin (14) have scored more equal goals from the corners in Premier League history than Van Dijk (13). The Liverpool captain is even the best scoring defender in the competition since his first full season with the Reds in 2018-19 (21).

And if he plays on Sunday, this will be his 300th Premier League performance. He would be the fourth Dutchman who reaches this milestone, after George Boateng (384), Dennis Bergkamp (315) and Edwin van der Sar (313).

He will certainly not want to mark a milestone with a different defeat, and Liverpool will certainly give Arsenal a run for their money for the believers of Anfield.

Can Arteta change the Fortuinen of Arsenal?

Given their run in recent weeks, the last team that Arsenal had wanted to meet this weekend was the newly crowned champions.

Their 2-1 loss of second leg for PSG on Wednesday was a third consecutive defeat for Arsenal in all competitions, but there were positive signs for Arteta in Paris.

They created 3.1 expected goals (XG), while they had 19 shots, their most in one match in the Champions League since March 2016 (20 versus Barcelona).

Arsenal recently struggled in the Premier League and, however, won only one of their last five in the competition (D2 L2).

They lost 2-1 to Bournemouth the previous time-out despite the fact that they took the lead. In fact, this season they have fallen 21 points from winning positions in the Premier League, their joint campaign (also 2019-20 -20).

And, for all the compliments they have received for their impressive scoring record of SET pieces earlier this season, they were caught on the other side.

39% of the goals of Arsenal that were admitted to the Premier League this season comes from set-piece situations (12/31, excluding penalties), the highest share of each party.

Despite all that, the side of Arteta has not lost any consecutive top matches since December 2023, but even too much they have cost this period, with the inclusion of 13 in the Premier League.

But Arsenal has a form for earning results against already crowned Premier League champions, who previously signed 1-1 at Manchester United in 2012-2013 and Liverpool beat 2-1 in 2019-2020.

The OPTA super computer gives Arsenal a 79% chance of finishing as second at the end of the season on 25 May, and they know that a victory over Liverpool will see them taking a big step to hold their current position.

Players to watch

Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

Salah has scored 11 Premier League goals against Arsenal, only more against Man Utd (13) and Tottenham (12).

In fact, his very first goal in the competition against De Gunners came in a 6-0 win for Chelsea in March 2014.

He has so far been involved in 46 goals this season, so if he scores or helps against the Gunners, he will andrew Cole (1993-94) and Alan Shearer's (1994-95) joint record for the most target involvement in one season in one season.

Against Spurs, Salah scored his 183rd goal for Liverpool. Only Harry Kane (213 for Tottenham) and Sergio Aguero (184 for Manchester City) have scored more goals for a single Premier League club than he (level with Wayne Rooney for Man Utd).

Arsenal – Bukayo Saka

Bukayo Saka has scored four goals in his last five Premier League matches against Liverpool – against no other side, he has scored more often in the competition.

All four of his strikes against them, however, have entered the Emirates Stadium.

He comes in this game after he started the Late Vechtback from Arsenal against PSG against PSG on Wednesday, making their only goal of the semi -final draw.

It was his 10th Champions League goal in his 18th performance in the competition – the only Englishman who hit that count earlier was Harry Kane (12 games).

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