The Numbers Game: Man City look to end Tottenham hoodoo at the Etihad

The Premier League started again last weekend with a bang, and the second round of matches promises just as many intrigues.

One of the striking competitions will take place on Saturday as two teams that have made a winning start in Manchester City and Tottenham, confronted with the Etihad Stadium.

Pep Guardiola's side is at the top of the rankings after week one, with a 4-0 win at Wolves that they propel above the other strong starters.

Spurs, however, is not far behind, after the start of life in the Premier League under Thomas Frank with a 3-0 win over newly promoted Burnley in home.

Tottenham has often proven a tough test for Guardiola during his management career, and they will hope that they can do a different surprise while trying to build an early momentum.

With both teams who want to get two victories of two this weekend, who is at the top of Manchester?

Here, with the help of Opta data, we dive into the most important insights prior to Saturday's collision.

What is expected?

It is not surprising that City will be in the mix this year for the title, which will be brought behind them last year, and they are overwhelming favorites to continue their winning start here.

City came to the top of 61.7% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations of the Opta-Supercomputer and achieved a victory in their first home game of the campaign.

In the meantime, Spurs have only an 18.7% chance of gaining a surprise victory, with their hope for a draw slightly higher at 19.6%.

However, the recent history suggests that traces may be able to destroy the opportunities.

Spurs has won two of their last four Premier League matches on the Etihad (D1 L1), more than in their previous 11 visits together (D2 L8).

And after their 4-0 win last season, they are looking for successive victories in City for the first time since May 2010.

And City has only won four of their last 12 top matches against Spurs (D2 L6). Although they defeated them 1-0 in their last meeting in February, they have not obtained any consecutive competition extraction against them since December 2017 and April 2019 (four in a row).

Spurs defeated City twice in all competitions last season, and also beat them out of the EFL Cup in the round of 16 with a 2-1 win at home, and the burgers may not be so confident despite their favorite tag.

Can the city of Spurs Hoodoo overcome?

During the scorching form of Man City in the middle of the season, one of the lowest moments came back in November with their heavy loss in the hands of Spurs.

The side of Ange Postecoglou blew away the hosts, with James Maddison scored an early brace before Pedro Porro and Brennan Johnson stacked on the misery.

That match marked the first time that Guardiola had lost a home game with four goals in his management career, but it is not the only time Spurs has pulled one about the Spaniard.

In all competitions, Guardiola has lost nine games against Tottenham in his management career and only lost more against Liverpool (10). They are also one of the three teams with which he has confronted 10 or more times and has won less than half of his games against (11/23, 48%).

The other parties to do in the same way are Liverpool (6/24, 6%) and Real Madrid (13/47, 48%).

Away from the house against Spurs, City tends to be more lucky, but it is in the Etihad where they have trouble controlling their opponents. They have not held a clean slate against spurs in home since a 3-0 win in February 2021.

In fact, the four Premier League meetings between City and Tottenham have since produced 21 goals in Etihad since then (nine for the hosts, 12 for Spurs), with the roadside at least twice in all four.

But form is on the side of the city. Since the beginning of April they have picked up more points than any other top side (26) and are the only side that is always present that remains unbeaten at that time (W8 D2).

They also have the most clean sheets (seven) and have confronted since April (7.6) with the least shots per match on each side in the division, something that Spurs will certainly want to test.

However, City's new signing sessions have started strongly, with Tijjani Reijnders and Rayan Cherki, both of which get on the score sheet on their Premier League debut for the club.

But Erling Haaland, who scored the other two goals in their wolves, will want to steal the headlines.

He scored 48 goals in 48 Home Premier League performances, and another brace on Saturday would see him hit a milestone. The only player who hit 50 at home goals in fewer than 50 performances is Alan Shearer, who scored his 50th home goal in his 47th game.

Haaland scored four goals in six previous performances against Spurs in the competition, but only one of them came home, in January 2023, which he would like to change.

Build Frank Wilum

Spurs quickly placed their UEFA Super Cup test behind them in their opening Premier League match, where Frank started a perfect start.

Prior to that victory over Burnley, Spurs had not kept a clean magazine in one of their previous 13 league games and had lost their last three home games at the top of the top.

But a convincing version, with the high point that Richarlison's amazing bastard was, made Frank soon ended both runs and their season at a high start.

Now he faces the challenge of ending another series, because since 2021-22 Spurs has not won their first two games of a competition campaign. That was also the last time that a manager won his first two league games that were responsible for the club (Nuno Espirito Santo, then).

However, they are without winning in their last 11 games against non-newly promoted parties (D2 L9), since a 1-0 win over Manchester United in February.

Spurs won only five games on the road in the Premier League (D2 L12) last season, although their first two victories away from home both came to Manchester.

Frank led Brentford to a 2-1 victory in the Etihad in November 2022. Only two managers have defeated Guardiola in the competition with two clubs, and he will be looking for Jose Mourinho (Real Madrid, Man Utd) and Antonio Conte (Chelsea, Spurs) on that list.

To do that, he will again be confident on his forward players to do their work, with Richarlison not the only influential figure against Burnley.

Mohammed Kudus became only the second player who gave two or more assists about his Premier League debut for Tottenham, after Maddison against Brentford in August 2023.

During the opening weekend, only Pedro Neto tried more crosses (12) than Kudus (10), while his five chances were the joints, together with Burnley's Josh Cullen and Man Utd's Bruno Fernandes.

However, as proven in the Super Cup, Spurs can get goals everywhere, with Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero who is responsible for scoring against Paris Saint-Germain.

The Dutchman gathered the second highest expected goals (XG) among Spurs players (0.6) last weekend, while both he and Djed Spence, who, like Romero, recently signed a new deal, each had two shots.

But Spurs has been hit by the pursuit of Crystal Palace star Ebereechi Eze, with reports that suggest that Rivals from North Lounds have been transferred to securing the signature of the English International.

It has been reported that a deal had been agreed between Spurs and Palace for the 27-year-old, although the Gunners have since agreed a £ 67.5 million deal, with the player close to closing a switch to the side of Mikel Arteta.

Players to watch

Manchester City – Tijjani Reijnders

Reijnders scored and assisted in the 4-0 victory of Manchester City on Wolves during his Premier League debut-no. Some player once achieved this in their first two city performances in the competition.

Reijnders could be the first player since Emmanuel Adebayor in August 2009 to score in their first two Premier League matches for the club.

Against Wolves, only Nico Gonzalez (25) tried to fit more in the last third than Reijnders (22), with the Dutchman completing 90.9% of it. He also tried the joint duels (14), although he only completed four.

Tottenham – Richarlison

Richarlison yielded a brace in the 3-0 victory of Spurs in Burnley on MD1, and already hit 50% of his total for the entire 2024-25 Premier League season (four out of 15 games).

The Brazilian has the best minutes per goal ratio of each player who can be seen in the last two Premier League seasons (a goal to see the 95 minutes), also enjoying a conversion rate of 27.3%.

He only collected 0.8 expected goals (XG) against Burnley, with five shots in general. Only three players had more attempts in the opening weekend than Richarlison (six), while he had the joint shots on goal (three, level with Matheus Cunha from Man Utd).

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