The Champions League returns for the penultimate round, with much depending on the match between Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City at the Parc des Princes.
When the draw took place, many predicted that this would be a top match in the competition. The reality is far from that, with both teams flirting with an early exit.
While neither team can be confirmed on Wednesday, both teams know that anything less than a win will put them in danger of potentially exiting the competition at the league stage.
City look to be back to normal in the new year and go into the match full of confidence after a 6-0 thrashing of Ipswich Town which extended their unbeaten run to six games in all competitions.
PSG have also looked formidable of late, having not lost any of their last eight.
But who will come out on top? Using Opta data, we dive into the key insights ahead of Wednesday's all-important clash.
What is expected?
PSG have won just one of their seven games against City in European competition (D2 L4). It is their lowest win percentage against a single opponent among the teams they have faced more than five times in Europe (14%).
They did win their last home game against City in the Champions League, despite only six shots (2-0 in September 2021). This remains the fewest number of shots they have ever had (since 2003–04) in a home game in the league.
However, the Opta supercomputer predicts this will be a tight match, with a 24.3% chance of it ending in a draw – an outcome that wouldn't be good for either team at this stage.
PSG will have a slim lead with 39.2% and will have the home fans behind them at the Parc des Princes, but City still have a chance as they come out on top in 36.5% of simulations.
There is also nothing to call between the two managers. This will be the fifth meeting between Luis Enrique and Pep Guardiola, with both winning two games in the Champions League.
However, along with Jurgen Klopp (two), Luis Enrique is one of only two managers to have beaten Guardiola by three or more goals on multiple occasions (3-0 in May 2015 and 4-0 in October 2016), both in charge of Barcelona ).
Can PSG make a comeback?
It has been a Champions League campaign to forget for PSG so far, and if they don't turn things around in the final two games, they will want to erase it from memory altogether.
Luis Enrique's side are currently 25th in the league, just one point outside the play-off places, but given the tight nature of the competition a win could rocket them up.
PSG may have won their opening match against Girona, but four games without a rebound win saw them plummet in the standings before steadying the ship somewhat.
Their 3-0 win over RB Salzburg last time out was their first win on the road in the Champions League this season, and also the first time they have scored away from home in the competition since beating Barcelona 4-1 in April.
That win in Austria also saw them record as many wins and goals as they had in their previous seven matches in the Champions League (W1 D2 L4). They last won consecutive games in the competition last February, when they defeated Real Sociedad home and away in the last 16.
It was a much-needed goalscoring boost as it doubled PSG's tally from their first five games combined, while Goncalo Ramos and Desire Doue will have gained confidence after scoring their first Champions League goals for PSG.
However, it could well be PSG's backline that will prove the difference on Wednesday, especially when it comes to the once again free-flowing City attack, who are currently scoring for fun and have scored 20 goals in their last four games.
To do this, they will have to turn around their home record. They have lost three of their last five matches in the Champions League (W1 D1), as many as in their previous seventeen matches at the Parc des Princes (W11 D3), while Luis Enrique is the only PSG manager to lose as many as three home games in the league.
New year, new city
The last time City played in the Champions League they were in the midst of their worst form under Guardiola, with a 2-0 defeat to Juventus in mid-December compounding their woes.
City would lose two more games after that, but since a 2-0 win over Leicester City in the Premier League at the end of December, they seem to have found their way again.
It is no secret that their struggles stemmed from not being able to call on Rodri, who remains sidelined with a cruciate ligament injury. Since the 2019/20 season, the Citizens have lost just three of 49 Champions League matches with the Spaniard in the team (6%, W35 D11), compared to four defeats in 14 matches without him (29%, W7 D3).
However, City appear to have found their new balance without him, with the help of Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden, who have played key roles in their last few Premier League games.
Now Guardiola will look to prove that on the European stage, especially after failing to win three consecutive games in the group/league stages of the Champions League (D1 L2) for the first time in his managerial career.
City's away form in the competition has proven worrying of late, as they have lost their last two Champions League games on the road, just one fewer than in their previous 28 such games (W16 D9 L3).
Only once have they lost more on the rebound, between November 2011 and December 2012 under Roberto Mancini (four), another unwanted record that Guardiola will hope to avoid.
As mentioned, City could be in trouble in the Champions League if they fail to win in Paris – they are 22nd in the table, one point above PSG – but would find themselves further down the standings at kick-off could stand, depending on Tuesday's results. .
City will still feel they have an outside chance of getting their hands on the trophy, especially with their season on the rise, but that revival should start on Wednesday.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Paris Saint Germain – Achraf Hakimi
Only three players have created more chances in the Champions League this season than Hakimi (16).
The Moroccan assisted two of their three goals against Salzburg at MD6, having registered just three assists in his first 32 games in the competition for the French side.
Manchester City – Erling Haaland
In his first eleven away games in the Champions League, Haaland scored 11 goals from 33 shots (33% conversion).
However, in his last eleven away games, the Norwegian has scored just four times, with his conversion rate dropping to 10% (four goals from 41 shots).
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