It has been a pre- and post-Christmas nightmare for Manchester United and their new boss Ruben Amorim, but their hopes of starting 2025 on a strong note have been severely hampered by a tricky trip to Anfield for their first game of the year.
Premier League leaders Liverpool go into the weekend six points clear at the top, and it would take something miraculous not to go from here to winning the title.
United, their arch-rivals, would of course want to have something to say about that in an ideal world, but the Red Devils are floundering in fourteenth place after Monday's 2-0 home defeat to Newcastle United.
Using the best Opta facts, we give a preview of Sunday's most important Premier League match.
What is expected?
The Opta supercomputer firmly supports Liverpool, who have a whopping 70.2% chance of victory in this match.
United, on the other hand, came out on top in just 13% of the Opta supercomputer's data-driven simulations, while the odds of a draw are 16.8%.
Given Liverpool's recent dominance in this match, it is unsurprising that the model predicts a Reds victory.
United have scored just one goal in their last eight away Premier League games against Liverpool, and have failed to score in their last five. Only Everton have had a longer run without scoring in their league history (six between 1969 and 1974).
The Red Devils have not won any of their last eight away league games against Liverpool (D4 L4), the longest streak since a run of nine between 1970 and 1979.
Meanwhile, Liverpool have lost just one of their last thirteen Premier League games against United (W7 D5), when they lost 2-1 at Old Trafford in August 2022.
Following the Reds' 3-0 victory at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture in September, Arne Slot could become only the second Liverpool boss to achieve the league double over United in his first season at the club, after George Kay in 1936- 37. and if the form guide is something you can follow then you would expect this to be the case.
Salah-led Reds on their way to glory?
It's been quite a season so far for Liverpool and their talisman Mohamed Salah.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding his future, Salah is arguably in the form of his career. He was responsible for 39 Premier League goals in 2024, scoring 23 and assisting 16. In a calendar year, only Salah himself has registered more goals in the competition's history (2018 – 28 goals, 12 assists).
Only Trent Alexander-Arnold has provided more Premier League assists (17 in 2019) for Liverpool in a calendar year than Salah's 16 in 2024.
Salah has been involved in 30 Premier League goals this season (17 goals, 13 assists), scoring and assisting in eight different matches, already the most ever by a player in a single season. It is the fifth time he has scored more than thirty goals in a season (also in 2017/18, 2018/19, 2021/22 and 2022/23), jointly the most players in Premier League history together with Alan Shearer.
It's not just Salah who shines for Liverpool. Luis Diaz and Cody Gakpo are in top form, with Diogo Jota also scoring in the 5-0 win over West Ham last time out. Alexander-Arnold has made headlines this week amid speculation of an impending move to Real Madrid, but he is also a player who is thriving in the Slot machine.
Liverpool scored the most goals in the Premier League in 2024 (92) – it is their second highest total in a year in the top flight, after the 106 goals they scored in 1982. The Reds also had 286 shots on target, the joint highest number. by a team in a year, alongside Manchester City in 2021, since Opta started recording such data in 2004.
The Reds come into this having won their last three Premier League matches, scoring at least three goals in each victory.
They last had a longer winning streak, scoring three or more goals in every win in February/March 2014 (six in a row). In their six league games last month they scored 21 times, three more than any other team in the league.
Things can only get better… Right?
Amorim said he wanted to 'shock' his United players by saying they could find themselves in a relegation battle if they are not careful.
In the history of the Premier League, four teams that were 14th at the turn of the year have been relegated: Newcastle (2008-09), Burnley (2009-10), Norwich City (2013-14) and Leeds United (2022-23). .
United lost six games in all competitions last month. That is the most games they have lost in one month since they suffered seven defeats in September 1930.
The Red Devils have lost their last three Premier League games. Since December and February 1979, they have not lost four league games in a row in the same season, while the last time they suffered four defeats in a row without scoring was in April 1909.
United need to tighten up at the back if they want to get anything out of this. They scored 18 goals in all competitions in December, the most in a single month since March 1964 (18).
In a potentially good omen for United, Liverpool – who beat Newcastle 4-2 in their first outing of 2024 – have not won their first league match in consecutive years since doing so in 2013 and 2014.
Despite Amorim's warnings, the Opta supercomputer predicts United will at least secure mid-table mediocrity and avoid a relegation battle. As it stands, they only have a 0.1% chance of falling.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Liverpool-Mohamed Salah
Salah has both scored more goals (12) and provided more assists (six) against United than any other player in Premier League history.
He contributed to 14 goals in the Premier League last month, more than any other player in the competition.
Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes
United were without captain Fernandes for the loss to Newcastle, as the Portugal international served his suspension following his dismissal from Wolves.
The Red Devils have failed to score a goal in any of the last four Premier League games in which Fernandes has featured for them.
Comments