Arsenal seemed to be guaranteed to finish second in the Premier League for a large part of this season.
But with two more games, the Gunners are far from sure of their place running away champions Liverpool.
Arsenal cannot even be sure about the Champions League qualification.
The Mikel Arteta team welcomes on Sunday in Newcastle in Newcastle United at the Emirates Stadium, with only two points that separate the teams.
A victory for Arsenal would not guarantee second place, but it would be a huge step for those who does this prior to a trip on the last day to relegate Southampton.
Newcastle now needs four points from their remaining six that are offered to guarantee the qualification of Champions League – the team of Eddie Howe host Everton on the last day of the season.
So there is still enough on the line, because this season Arsenal can get the best out of the home advantage this season.
Here we dive in the competition with the help of Opta Insights.
What is expected?
Newcastle has won five of their last eight meetings with Arsenal in all competitions (D1 L2), as much as they had in their previous 52 against the Gunners (D11 L36).
The Magpies won three games this season against Arsenal, 1-0 in the Premier League and 2-0 in both legs of the League Cup semi-final. No team has ever beat the Gunners four times in one campaign.
After their 1-0 win in St James' Park in November, Newcastle wants to complete their first competition for Double about Arsenal since 1994-95.
Arsenal has only lost one of their last 20 Premier League home matches against Newcastle (W17 D2) and won 11 of the last 12 (D1) since a 1-0 loss in November 2010.
But despite their recent misery against the magpies, Arsenal are made favorites by the OPTA -SUPERCOMPUTER.
Arsenal came at the top in 47.7% of the data-conducted simulations of the model, while Newcastle was victors in 27.5%.
There is a 24.8% chance of a draw.
Award to get back on the right track
Arsenal is Winless in their last four home games in all competitions (D2 L2) and lose the last two.
In total they did not win in five games, after they had suffered three defeats in that run, although they won a respectable draw with Liverpool in the previous time, despite seeing Mikel Merino a red card.
They last had a longer run without a victory in the Emirates Stadium between March and May 2021 (six), while they last lost more successively in November/December 2019 (four).
Arsenal, however, has a strong record when it comes to their last home game of a season.
The Gunners have only lost their last home competition in one of the last 27 seasons (W22 D4), with 2-1 against Aston Villa in 2010-11.
The only time that their last home game was against Newcastle was in 1996-97 and lost 1-0 thanks to a Robbie Elliott goal.
Despite all their recent problems, it is predicted that Arsenal will finish second by Opta's supercomputer, who assesses their chances of doing this at 78.1%.
Ending in a high note
Newcastle has won seven of their last nine Premier League matches, but has won any of their last two away from home (D1 L1).
The Magpies defeated Chelsea with 2-0 previous time-out and took a huge step in the direction of getting a return to the Champions League.
And Newcastle has not lost their final-road match in one of the last six seasons (W4 D2) since a 1-0 loss in Tottenham in 2017-18. Four of these games have been gone to London Seides (W3 D1) and beat Brentford 4-2 previous term.
So the signs are good, and in Alexander Isak they have an attacker of world-class species that Arsenal would certainly like to lead their line.
Only Mohamed Salah (28) has scored more Premier League goals this season than Isak (23), with the Sweden International scored on average every 116 minutes.
However, Newcastle has been excellent in the last third part.
Their census of 68 goals only train Liverpool (83), while only Brentford (15.1%) can improve the shot conversion rate of the Magpies (13.8%).
But the visitors have not finished second since the 1997-98 season and the OPTA model does not predict that as a likely result for their season.
They finish second in just 19.2%of simulations, and are actually more marginal more likely to finish fourth (33.1%) than third (30.8%) – the probability of the probability is the team of Howe only 19.2%.
Players to watch
Arsenal – William Saliba
The defense of Arsenal has been their foundation again this season. They have kept 12 clean sheets in the top flight and admitted a competition 33 goals from a competition-bear 32.6 expected goals against (XGA).
The key to defensive performance was the excellent form of Saliba.
The French international could make his 100th Premier League appearance in this competition. If he plays and wins Arsenal, this would be the same as the most victories for a Gunners player in their first 100 games in the competition (68 by Lauren and Sol Campbell).
Newcastle United – Jacob Murphy
Murphy has been another striking artist for Newcastle, after he has concluded a deadly partnership with Isak.
The wing player has provided 12 assists in the Premier League this season. The only Newcastle players with more in one campaign are Andrew Cole (13 in 1993-94) and Nolberto Solano (15 in 1999-00).