A few months ago, most fans would have had the collision of Sunday between Arsenal and Manchester City circled in the diary as a potential title decision maker, a collision between the challengers of Mikel Arteta and the comprehensive champions of Pep Guardiola.
A serious knee injury sustained by Rodri in the return of September between the teams was the turning point in the city season, with their defending defense since that spicy 2-2 draw.
All hope of retaining their crown seems to have disappeared for a long time, with Champions League qualification the limit of their ambitions.
In the meantime, Arsenal is accumulating in the title race. The Gunners have MatchDay 24 Six Points behind Liverpool and have played an extra game, the Gunners have little or no error space.
Arsenal closed their Champions League Group phase campaign with a 2-1 win over Girona on Wednesday and immediately goes into the last 16, while City has to navigate the play-offs after their nervy 3-1 victory over Club Brugge.
While these two giants return to the League promotion, we look at the latest episode in their rivalry with our opta-driven preview.
Back on the road this weekend
#Asahisuperdry pic.twitter.com/x28zzf5jzi
– Manchester City (@Mancity) January 30, 2025
What is expected?
The Opta-Supercomputer makes Arsenal favorites for Sunday's game, with a 46% chance of winning, while City won 28.6% of our pre-match simulations.
The last two competition meetings between these parties have been completed, with the chances of a third consecutive draw between them assessed at 25.4%.
The last meeting of the teams that aforementioned 2-2 draw in the Etihad Stadium-Zag Arsenal written back for long periods after Leandro Trossard was sent.
John Stones scored a 98th minute equalizer with the 28th photo of the city of the second half, the Joint-Second Highst by a record (from 2003-04) in one half of Premier League football, only behind City's 34 in their iconic late Win Queens Park Rangers to win the title in May 2012.
Arsenal defeated City with 1-0 when the teams were last confronted with the Emirates in October 2023. They won the last consecutive Home League matches against City between 2005-06 and 2008-09 (a series of four consecutive victories).
After having won 12 consecutive league games against Arsenal between 2017 and 2023, City is now Winloos in their last three against them (two draws, one loss).
Set piece Masters to meet their match?
Arsenal was missing an advanced attack with Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus, so that they chase a new attacker in the last days of the January transfer window.
However, their set piece of bravery has enabled them to make results. Their 12 goals via SET documents (excluding penalties) are the most of each team in the Premier League this season.
Arsenal players also have nine assists directly from SET pieces in the Premier League. That is most of each team, with Kai Havertz, Thomas Pardeny and Declan Rice all in with two each and Saka with three.
However, City has only admitted two goals of SET pieces that in 2024-25 fines exclusively fines, the joint work in the competition next to Brentford.
One was a Gabriel Magalhaes header from a corner earlier this season, and five of the last 10 Premier League goals that Arsenal scored against City came from the corners.
This season Arsenal has a success of 51.24% in the Premier League this season, a figure that is only improved by six parties. City is now on the fifth soil due to the same statistics and won 48.46% of their duels in the air.
That is why Abdukodir Khusanov-Wiens error led to lagging City in their 3-1 win over Chelsea-TE with a completely different kind of test. Prior to leaving the lens, the 20-year-old in the 85th percentile was won under Centrumbacks for Air Duels in Ligue 1 in 2024-25, so he must possess the attributes to cope.
Haaland shoots at all cylinders
While the title defense of City collapsed in the first half of the season, a lot of the focus – understandably – concentrated on Rodri, with his injury to the city in midfield.
However, an inability to defend counterattacks was far from the only problem of the city, whereby their attacking Talisman also lags behind.
During a run of 13 Premier League matches starting with that Arsenal -stable value on September 28 and ending with a boxing day pulling with Everton, Haaland only scored three times.
During that spell Haaland 47 Schoten worth 8.2 expected goals (XG) – Only Mohamed Salah (11.12) and Cole Palmer (9.42) had a higher value in that period. But the Norwegian performed his underlying figures with 5.2 goals and was surpassed by city nurse Josko Gvardiol (four goals).
However, something has been clicked on Haaland since he tracked in the last outing of City of 2024-and a 2-0 win in Leicester City. He has five goals in his last five Premier League performances, which exceeds his XG figures by 1.1 (3.9 xg).
He hit the target with 81.25% of his shots in his last five league games (13 out of 18), after he had only done this with 55.56% in his previous 13 (20 of 47).
Although the positioning of Robert Sanchez was demonstrably in default when he placed the city 2-1 up in last week's victory over Chelsea, Haaland showed great calm to lobe the blues goalkeeper after winning a struggle with Trevoh Chalobah.
The dual Golden Boot winner seems to be approaching the top shape, which is bad news for Arsenal, against whom he scored three times in five league matches.
Players to watch
Arsenal – Gabriel Magalhaes
Gabriel scored against City earlier this season and this season has three Premier League goals in general – Gvardiol, with five, is the only defender who beats the Brazilian.
Arsenal has had a competition-high eight goals that are scored by defenders in general this campaign.
Manchester City – Phil Foden
Foden recently found shape, after a slow start of the campaign. He scored more Premier League goals in January than any other player, who scored six times of six shots on goal.
He is the fifth player on Record (2003-04) to score no fewer than six goals with every shot on Doel in a month, together with Jermain Defoe in March 2008, Dimitar Berbatov in December 2011, Sergio Agüero in August 2019 and Taiwo and Taiwo and Taiwo Awoniyi in May 2023 (all six).
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