The final series of Premier League games before Christmas are just around the corner, with Arne Slot's Liverpool hoping to still be at the top of the tree come December 25.
They visit Tottenham in Sunday's late kick-off, shortly after their nearest rivals Chelsea head to Goodison Park to take on Everton.
After beating Southampton 2-1 in the EFL Cup on Wednesday and drawing a last-four tie with Spurs before the new year, the Reds have still lost just one of their 24 games under Slot in all competitions – against Nottingham Forest in September.
A win on Sunday will ensure Liverpool top the Premier League at Christmas for the first time since 2020.
However, the Reds have only won the title in one of the last seven top-flight campaigns in which they led the way at Christmas, and they did so in 2019-20.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have continued to blow hot and cold, beating Southampton 5-0 last Sunday and then trailing Manchester United 4-3 in Thursday's thrilling EFL Cup quarter-final. Those results came on the back of a five-match winless run in all competitions.
With a Christmas cracker expected in North London, we dive into the best Opta facts and stats surrounding the match.
Two crazy moments in one crazy match between Liverpool and Spurs in 2023
What will be the outcome when they meet again next Sunday? pic.twitter.com/U4bstsKu4S
— Premier League (@premierleague) December 19, 2024
What is expected?
The Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool heavy favorites to take all three points at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, giving the visitors a 52.7% chance of victory.
In the 10,000 pre-match simulations run by the Opta supercomputer, Spurs won just 24.6%, with a finishing level of 22.6%.
Given the Reds' recent results against Tottenham, Liverpool should travel south in a confident mood. They have lost just two of their last 23 Premier League meetings with Spurs, winning 15 and drawing six, while scoring in each of the teams' last 17 head-to-head matches.
However, Tottenham won this match 2-1 last season, with it being overshadowed by controversy as Jurgen Klopp's Reds were reduced to nine men after red cards for Curtis Jones and Diogo Jota.
Luis Diaz, meanwhile, saw a potential opening goal wrongly disallowed by VAR Darren England, for which refereeing body PGMOL later apologized.
That match was decided by a Joel Matip own goal in stoppage time, the sixth 90th-minute winner scored in the Premier League meetings between Tottenham and Liverpool, more than any other match in the competition's history.
Tottenham could now win back-to-back home games against Liverpool in the Premier League for the first time since the run of five wins between 2008 and 2012.
However, Spurs have lost nine of their last 11 Premier League games against sides that started at the top of the table, with both exceptions coming against Manchester City (2-2 in August 2019, 3-2 in February 2022). In this series they lost all five home games.
Can Salah become Christmas King?
Mohamed Salah has made headlines both on and off the pitch this campaign.
With no further news on a new contract for the Egyptian, his glittering spell on Merseyside could be coming to an end. If that is the case, he appears determined to get the most out of himself and has already identified himself as a prime candidate for Player of the Season honors.
In the 32-year history of the Premier League, no player has ever reached double figures for both goals and assists in a single season before Christmas Day. With thirteen goals and nine assists to his name this season, Salah will make history if he scores on Sunday.
Salah appears to be on course to produce the best creative campaign of his career, having never before surpassed 13 assists in a single league season (his 2021-2022 tally).
Only Arsenal's Bukayo Saka (10) has more assists in the Premier League this season, although expected assists (xA) could indicate Salah has benefited from some excellent finishing from his teammates. His total of 3.34 xA this season has been bettered by even ten Premier League players, including Dwight McNeil (3.95), Bryan Mbeumo (3.55) and Youri Tielemans (3.46).
Salah's figure of 0.61 assists per 90 minutes in 2024-25 is by far his best in any Premier League season, but he scored more xA per 90 in 2023-24 (0.27) and 2021-22 (0.24, compared to 0.23 this season). season).
He has created an average of 1.84 chances per game this season, which is actually his third lowest figure in a Premier League season, down from his highest mark of 2.34 last season.
Nevertheless, Salah's importance to Slot's winning machine cannot be overstated. His 22 goals in the Premier League this season account for 71% of Liverpool's total goals (31), by far the highest share of any player in the competition.
Salah, the league's most important player, could be in for another piece of Premier League history this week.
Leaky backline at Spurs' expense?
If Ange Postecoglou's Tottenham had to be described in one word, entertain would certainly be one of the first words that come to mind. Inconsistent would be something else.
After finishing on the right in Thursday's seven-goal thriller against United, in which they almost squandered a 3-0 lead thanks to two Fraser Forster errors, Tottenham have scored three or more goals in nine different games this season alone.
Only Chelsea (37) have bettered their 36 Premier League goals this season, while they rank fourth in the division for expected goals (31.18 xG) and total shots (249), and second for shots on target (97).
Defensively, however, it has all too often been a mess. Spurs' figure of 24.28 expected goals against (xGA) is the eighth-worst in the league. Their opponents generate a higher quality of chances than those of 15th-placed Crystal Palace (22.51) or 16th-placed Everton (20.27).
The unbearable demands of Tottenham's high press proved costly in the 4-3 defeat to Chelsea at home last time out, and if they continue to adopt the same approach against Liverpool's livewire attackers, this could be another difficult outing.
Only Chelsea (28) have attempted more shots from fast breaks than Liverpool (23) in the Premier League this season, with Salah (10) leading the way among all players in the division.
Support for Postecoglou has been at a razor's edge recently, with some Spurs fans protesting at the Australian in the aftermath of a defeat at Bournemouth, while others remain firmly behind the idealistic Australian.
Tottenham must at all costs avoid Liverpool running away from the game prematurely and creating a toxic atmosphere.
At home, Spurs have managed just one clean sheet in their last 23 league games – against toothless Everton in August. Their current three-match winless run at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is the longest in the league since December 2013 (a run of four).
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Tottenham-Son Heung-min
Son had a match to remember against Southampton last weekend, with his two assists putting him level with Darren Anderton as the Spurs player with the most assists in Premier League history (68). He will be determined to take that honor straight away next time.
The South Korean also scored on the south coast, becoming only the 20th player to score in at least 100 different Premier League games.
Son needed 316 league appearances to do this, meaning he accomplished the feat faster than the likes of Teddy Sheringham (329), Nicolas Anelka (331), Robbie Keane (335) and Jermain Defoe (338).
Liverpool – Diogo Jota
After being sent off in this exact match last season, he will be looking for revenge against an opponent he has excelled against in the past.
Jota scored the winner for Wolves at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in March 2020 and has since scored twice in four more league games against Spurs – only against Leicester City, Arsenal (both six) and Southampton (four) has he scored more Premier League goals.
He came off the bench to score Liverpool's equalizer against Fulham in a 2-2 draw last week, his eighth league goal as a substitute for the Reds – no player has featured in the league since arriving at Anfield in September 2020.
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