
Arsenal returned to winning ways on Tuesday evening with an emphatic 7-1 win over PSV to almost ensure their progress to the quarterfinals of the Champions League.
The result almost packed the draw with the second stage that still has to be played at Emirates Stadium on 12 March.
The first half of the goals of Jurrien Timber, Ethan Nwaneri and Mikel Merino brought the men of Mikel Arteta into control for a brace by Martin Odegaard, together with strikes by Leandro Trossard and Riccardo Calafiori added more shine to the Scoreline.
Although Arsenal may looked like a well-oiled machine in Eindhoven, they were allowed to dictate the game thanks to the meager performance of their opponents, which looked like a sputtering Morris minor.
It would be easy to assume through a glance at the result that the Gunners were ruthless in their game and the seven goals they scored completely deserved.
The underlying statistics, however, tell a different story – a story that is more consistent with the attacking struggles of the North Londers of earlier games.
In the Netherlands they only made an expected goals in total (XG) of 2.35 of a total of 13 shots on goal.
Expected goals are measured on the basis of a number of factors to determine how likely a certain shot is to touch the back of the net when it is taken.
Factors include the type of assist that led to the attempt, whether it was made a shot with the head or foot, the corner and distance of the shot, and whether it was determined as a big chance.
For example, a rebound that falls to a player for an open goal six meters out, has a high XG score, but a shot from 35 yards in a narrow angle will have a low XG score.
The expected goals are measured on a scale of 0.01 to 0.99 with a shot with an XG rating of 0.5, which means that a player is expected to score 50 percent of the time from the chance.
Against PSV, Arsenal's highest rated chance came in terms of XG when Calafiori scored the seventh of his team with his right foot from just under 12 meters – with 0.36 xg.
The two goals of Timber and Trossard, on the other hand, generated a little more than 0.16 xg, even though both came out of the six-year box.
As a result, Arsenal could happily consider himself to have brought the draw to bed at such an early stage, especially in view of their struggles for the goal against West Ham United and Nottingham Forest in their last two Premier League matches.
In those two games, they created a total of 1.34xG and 1.17XG and – respectively – songs that they should improve if they realize their ambitions of catching away competition leaders Liverpool or winning the Champions League.
In the midst of all this, it is worth remembering for the balance that Mikel Merino is currently playing as the auxiliary attack of the party – with Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka all injured.
Arsenal did indeed struggle in the knockout phases of the Champions League and pulled empty places away from home against FC Porto and Bayern Munich.
To score seven on the road in the European Elite competition – the first time that every team ever did – will stimulate the spirits of players, coaches and fans.
The Premier League title may be too far out of reach after successive games in which the Gunners dropped points.
But everyone involved in the club will keep the hope of winning the Champions League for the first time, thanks to the presence of such a strong defensive core and a firmness and resilience in Europe that the team was missing during the office of Arteta.
On the evening that many Arsenal fans have chosen to have pancakes for dinner in the UK, Arteta will hope that this result is Arsenal in gear for the last part of the campaign.
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