With the inaugural 36-team Champions League group phase that is coming to an end, here is the situation in which each La Liga side is located before the 18 games start at the same time.
Barcelona can probably secure second place with only one point at home at Atalanta, although La Dea will be a difficult test. A victory gives them a slim hope to overcome Liverpool in first place, the Reds was allowed to lose from PSV Eindhoven, but otherwise they are in second place. Atalanta will be strong against Barcelona, with a round of 16 spot on the line for the 7th place.
The most important thing, however, is to end the top two, because that will see them sown to the other top seeds in the draw, as the highest seed in that part of the draw. After they have already secured a top eight place, they go directly into the round of 16. If Barcelona draws and Arsenal or Interwin, they can jump the Catalans with an important target swing, and the same is the case for Atletico Madrid and AC Milan if they are Losing, but that swing would be 10-11 goals its target difference is the divorce factor.
Atletico Madrid will qualify in the top eight for the round of 16 with a win, and can end as high as second, but will probably fight for sowing. If they were to draw, Atletico would have eight teams behind them who could possibly catch them up, but that partly depends on goal difference. However, there are four places for the nine teams, including Atletico.
If Los Colchoneros were to suffer a shock destruction against Salzburg, who are 34th and all eliminated, then Atletico would run a greater risk of falling into the play-off round. The number of teams that could surpass them would increase to 13 teams, although some of them face each other. They are guaranteed a play-off place, but a victory would go a long way in front of Diego Simeone.
Real Madrid is the side that has their fate most in the air. They have a 2.9% chance to achieve the top eight with a victory, but should improve the results of the eight sides for them to squeeze in the round of 16. Only three points will be sufficient. As Marca noted, Real Madrid Lille and Feyenoord needs to draw, and defeat for Aston Villa and Monaco against Celtic and Inter to have hope.
A draw will do little for Los Blancos, which is guaranteed to be a play-off place. She would probably see that sown in the bottom half of the play-off round, while a defeat could see them ending as low as 23rd. Upstairs are Brest, who are a point for them and have enough on the line.
Unfortunately for Girona, progress is excluded after just a single victory over Slovan Bratislava. A victory over Arsenal could see them moving as high as 28th, a defeat would run the risk of expanding the table. A minimum 11-target fluctuation should occur, but in combination with Slovan and young boys wins to make that happen.
A point guarantees that they will not end the soil, but it is usually proud, a profit bonus of € 2.1 million and coefficient points on the line for the Catalans against the arsenal of Mikel Arteta. The Gunners are in third place and will be motivated to win by sowing places and guarantee their place in the round of 16.
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