UCL qualification: Epic final day awaits as FIVE teams battle it out

The race for Champions League qualification is on its way to an epic conclusion on the last day of the season next Sunday.

Premier League winners Liverpool and second place Arsenal already have both guaranteed Champions League football.

But after Sunday's results there is now only one point that is separated in seventh in seventh place in Newcastle United and Nottingham in the third in seventh place.

Prior to their rear -back home game with Bournemouth on Tuesday evening, Live on Sky Sports, Manchester City went out of the top five.

However, the Guardiola team still has their Champions League destination in its own hands and will continue next season in the European Premier Club competition with the victory in midweek and then at Fulham on the last day.

It was all founded for a blockbuster last day with Nottingham Forest who travels with so much on the line to Chelsea, Newcastle with Everton, Aston Villa on his way to Old Trafford to combat the Manchester United and Guardiola team in Fulham.

The remaining luminaires of Newcastle – points 66, target difference + 22

Return: Newcastle vs Everton

With every Champions League -related result that is going against Newcastle this weekend, Eddie Howe is now confronted on the last day with a huge assignment against Everton – and possibly without Alexander Isak in front.

A draw would only be enough if Aston Villa did not win, Chelsea or Forest lost, and/or Manchester City could not win any of their two remaining matches.

But it comes down to four teams within a point of them, Newcastle can only consider being a victory on the last day to book a place in the Champions League.

Chelsea – Points 66, target difference + 20

Return: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea

Because their target difference is so much better than that of Villa, Chelsea will qualify for the Champions League when they win in Forest on Sunday. Even if City has a positive week, a victory this Sunday for Chelsea means that they end in at least fifth with Forest and Villa among them.

A draw would only be enough if two of these three scenarios take place: City loses twice this week, Newcastle is defeated by Everton and Villa Losing Manchester United.

In short, it is Win of Buste next week for Chelsea on the city.

Aston Villa – Points 66, target difference + 9

Return: Man United vs Aston Villa

Mathematically, Villa may have enough to qualify for the Champions League: if City both their two games and Forest is defeated by Chelsea, Villa ends fifth.

But that is a deeply unlikely scenario.

The reality is that Villa, with just a goal difference from Plus Nine, has to win on Old Trafford on the last day and even then it will not be enough if Newcastle and Chelsea win, while City takes four points of their last two games – that series of results will leave the city and villa level on points, but with their extensive superior doelsalo.

Manchester City – Points 65, target difference + 24

Races left: Man City vs Bournemouth (Tuesday, kick -off at 7 p.m.): Fulham vs Man City

There is now real danger about the hope of Man City on a top five finish after their trek in Southampton and the victories of Friday evening for Villa and Chelsea.

Mathematically, only one point of their last two games – at home at Bournemouth and Away to Fulham – can be sufficient.

More realistic, at least three points are required, four would almost certainly be sufficient because of their target difference and only six would offer a guarantee.

And all this after the enormous disappointment of the FA Cup final on Saturday.

As Sky Sports' Ben Ransom noted from Wembley: “This defeat is so potentially harmful to Man City, who will end the season without a trophy.

“Although Champions League qualification is in its own hands, there is suddenly a huge amount of danger to Tuesday evening's game against Bournemouth.”

Nottingham Forest – Points 65, target difference + 13

Return: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea

Let's remove the idea that City loses both Bournemouth and Fulham of the comparison and get directly to the point: Forest has hope to catch up with two teams above them and end up in the top five, they have to beat Chelsea on the last day.

Admittedly, they can still end up as one of the four teams at 66 points, but in that scenario they are almost certain to end up on target difference under Newcastle and City.

Only a victory on the last day will be enough, and even then Forest will have to hope that two of the next three will happen: City to take only two points or less from the last week, Villa not to win in Manchester United and Newcastle not to beat Everton.

See you Sunday.

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