Halfway through the penultimate round of the Champions League group stage, for the first time in a 36-team competition format, the qualifying equations are finally starting to take shape. Atletico Madrid and Barcelona made significant progress with their victories, while Real Madrid will be confident and Girona will be praying for a miracle.
Barcelona currently sit second in the table, behind only Liverpool, whose perfect record puts them three points ahead of the Catalans. Qualification straight into the Round of 16 is assured for Hansi Flick's side after victory over Benfica, and they would need a win over Atalanta on the final day, coupled with a loss to Liverpool at PSV Eindhoven, to finish first .
Nevertheless, their priority will be to avoid dropping below second place. Atletico, Arsenal, Inter, Bayern Munich and AC Milan can still catch them if they win their remaining matches. Apart from the financial boost and direct placement against the lowest qualified teams, Barcelona will avoid being on the same side of the draw as Liverpool if they finish second.
For Atletico, a win over RB Salzburg guarantees their passage to the Round of 16 in the top eight, thanks to their victory over Bayer Leverkusen. If they draw, they have a chance to stay in the top eight, but Relevo explains that a loss would exponentially increase their chances of playing in the play-off round, albeit as a high seed.
That is what Real Madrid strives for. Ahead of their own match against Salzburg, Los Blancos are on nine points and 22nd in the table. Two wins against the Austrians and Brest will guarantee their place in the play-off round and give them a good chance of being included in the draw, although mid-table looks the most likely.
Four points from their two matches are likely to qualify them, as that would require three teams below them, out of a possible five, to win both matches to eliminate them. Three points wouldn't change that equation, and two points would carry a higher risk but still require at least one win from the teams below them. If it is less, Los Blancos are more likely to go out. Goal difference will be the key differentiator, so Carlo Ancelotti's side will be chasing goals in both matches.
Girona is having a much more difficult time. Currently, they are 31st in the rankings, with just three points to their name. The Catalans' only chance of qualifying is with two wins – from their remaining matches with AC Milan and Arsenal. They would then need Celtic, Dinamo Zagreb, Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid, Shakhtar Donestsk and Sparta Prague to remain winless in their remaining matches. The former three would also finish above Girona with two points from their last Champions League games, leaving Michel Sanchez and his players on a prayer.
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