The Premier League has a 98.5 percent chance of an extra place in next season's Champions League.
Last season, England also seemed to be looking for an extra place after the group stages of the three continental competitions.
But a poor performance in the knockouts left them third in the coefficient table. Only the top four players in the Premier League therefore qualified for the Champions League, meaning Tottenham missed out on the Europa League and entered.
England had finished in the top two of the coefficient table in six of the previous seven seasons, but the Premier League had its lowest coefficient total since 2016/2017 – and it would have been even lower without the introduction of the Conference League in 2021. 22 .
This time, however, Chelsea have blown everything before them in the Conference League, while Liverpool have a 100 percent record after their first six Champions League games. Arsenal are third, while Villa are fifth with two league games remaining.
Manchester United, meanwhile, is undefeated in the Europa League, the same competition in which Spurs are currently ninth.
Of all the teams at risk of early elimination, it is English champions Manchester City – currently 22nd in the Champions League rankings and with work to do.
But according to Opta, England currently have an incredible 98.5 percent chance of getting the coveted extra spot for the 2025/2026 season, ahead of Italy and Spain.
In the coefficient rankings, a win is worth two points, a draw one and there are also bonus points for reaching certain stages of the competition.
Who will qualify from the competition phase?
To achieve automatic qualification for the March round of 16, teams must finish in the top eight.
Those who finish ninth to sixteenth will be qualified for the play-offs and will therefore play the second leg at home. Those from the 17th to the 24th will not be seeded, so make sure you have the first leg at home.
Teams finishing anywhere between 25th and 36th will be eliminated from this season's competition, without entry into the Europa League.
Okay, but if we're in the top eight, does it matter if we finish first or eighth?
Yes, that's right. The final league position gives you a specific route – and specific opponents – in the knockout draw.
The image below shows the tournament tree for the rest of the competition. For the first time, the knockout rounds will be decided in the league stage – with no separate draws for the last 16, quarter-finals and beyond.
For example, the teams that finish first or second in the league stage will face a team that finishes 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th.
Compare that to the seventh- or eighth-place team, which could play a team that finishes 23rd or 24th – but also risks facing the ninth- or 10th-place team – which could be a great European team.
The advantage for the team that finishes first or second is that they are guaranteed to play a team in the 'middle' of the Champions League final. If you finish lower, you run the risk of playing against a better team.
Is it really an advantage to finish at the top?
Not necessarily. Especially this season.
The early struggles of teams like Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain mean that a top European side could find themselves in the 'middle' of the Champions League, bumping into one of the best performing teams.
Currently, Liverpool sit at the top of the table – but the teams that started this matchweek in 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th are Benfica, Monaco, Sporting and Feyenoord – with PSG, Real Madrid and Man City among those teams in the table.
So if top teams still don't do as well as expected in the league stage, this could lead to some blockbusters in the last 16, taking away the advantage of finishing in the highest possible places.
Is there a difference between ninth and 24th place?
Again, yes. A big one. And that has everything to do with the play-offs.
The new Champions League format means that the team finishing ninth will face the team in 24th in the play-off round. The tenth plays the 23rd, the 11th plays the 22nd and so on.
So if you just miss out on a top eight finish, the blow is softened by playing the worst performing teams who qualified from the league stage. So the higher you finish, the 'easier' the game becomes.
Then again, if teams like Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain struggle in the league stages, the top sides may meet in the play-off rounds.
How many points do you need to guarantee a place in the top eight?
The Opta supercomputer thinks that 16 points is almost certainly enough to finish in the top eight, which would then guarantee you a last 16 spot in March. Liverpool have surpassed that tally by winning all six games so far, while Aston Villa are just one win away from that checkpoint.
The data also shows that 15 points could be enough to sneak into eighth place, with that number of points being sufficient in 73 percent of Opta's 50,000 simulations of the competition phase.
Meanwhile, 14 points are unlikely to be enough for a top eight finish. Arsenal are currently on 13 points, so a win over Dinamo Zagreb in their next Champions League match in January should seal a place in the top eight.
How many points do you need to guarantee a top-24 finish?
To finish in the top 24, which at least guarantees you a play-off spot, Opta thinks that 10 points almost certainly guarantees you a place in that round.
Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa have already reached that number, but City and Celtic still have some work to do.
Celtic are currently on nine points after the goalless draw against Dinamo Zagreb, but City are still on eight points with two games to go. In those matches they face PSG and Club Brugge.
Nine points could also be enough to finish 24th, a boost for City, with that number of points being sufficient in 69 percent of simulations.
Only eight points are at risk of being eliminated, while that number is sufficient in only 16 percent of simulations.
Opta Predictions: Arsenal, Liverpool in top eight
The Opta supercomputer predicts Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa will finish in the top eight, with Arne Slot's side remaining top, the Gunners in third and Villa in seventh.
As it stands, Manchester City and Celtic will finish in 22nd and 18th.
The supercomputer also says PSG are on course to finish 24th – avoiding elimination by the skin of their teeth.
Who are the supercomputer's Champions League favorites?
Liverpool are currently the favorites to win the Champions League, with Slot's side given a 20 percent chance of lifting the trophy in Munich after a great start to the season.
Arsenal are third favorites with 13.2 percent – just ahead of Pep Guardiola's Man City – and fourth favorites with 9.3 percent.
Inter Milan are second favorites with 15.8 percent, with Atalanta, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen and Sporting making up the top ten.
Aston Villa have a 0.6 percent chance of winning the entire tournament, which is twice as likely as Celtic's 0.3 percent.
When are the 2024/25 Champions League knockout stages?
Where will the Champions League final be held in 2025?
The 2025 Champions League final will take place in Munich on May 31, 2025, at the Allianz Arena.
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