Women Super League predictions: Leicester need Christmas miracle against Chelsea

This weekend is the last matchday of the Women's Super League before the winter break.

Chelsea will look to strengthen their perfect start at the top of the table when they visit Leicester City on Saturday, having won all fourteen games under Sonia Bompastor in all competitions.

The Blues Manchester City already have a five-point lead, and Gareth Taylor's challengers could find themselves further adrift by the time they visit Everton on Sunday.

Elsewhere, Arsenal will defend their unbeaten record under interim coach Renee Slegers at Liverpool, while bottom-of-the-table Crystal Palace host Manchester United.

Surprise package Brighton and Hove Albion, meanwhile, will look to bounce back from a 4-2 defeat to Chelsea when they welcome Tottenham to the Broadfield Stadium.

But who will come out on top this weekend? We turned to the trusty Opta supercomputer to get its matchday 10 predictions.

LEICESTER V CHELSEA

Bompastor has already made the best start of any WSL coach in the history of the competition, and Chelsea could become the first team ever to win their first ten games of a season when they visit Leicester on Saturday for the early kick-off at the King Power Stadium.

Chelsea have an exceptional record against the Foxes, having lost each of the teams' previous six WSL meetings, conceding an average of more than six goals per game over the last five (32 conceded – 6.4 per game).

With Chelsea already scoring 30 times in nine games, there could be goals, goals and more goals in this match. Leicester should be especially wary of Aggie Beever-Jones, who has now scored 17 goals in the WSL – only Lauren Hemp (31), Georgia Stanway (29) and Beth Mead (18) have scored more in the league before reaching 22 became.

Chelsea have made a habit of starting strongly this season, opening the scoring in all nine WSL matches. They have won 43 of their last 44 league games after leading 1-0, the exception being a 4-3 defeat to Liverpool in May.

The Foxes have struggled in front of goal this season, failing to score in more games than any other team in the WSL (seven). Only one team has ever scored fewer goals in nine games of a WSL campaign than the Foxes' two this season (Yeovil Town, 0 in 2017-18).

Chelsea are overwhelming favorites for this and the Opta Supercomputer gives them an 83.1% chance of victory, with 9.3% of match simulations finishing at the final level. Leicester may need a Christmas miracle to earn three points as he is only given a 7.6% chance of winning.

BRIGHTON V TOTTENHAM

Brighton will be looking to get back to winning ways after a brave effort against Chelsea in their last league match. The Seagulls will also be looking to stay in the chasing pack and a win would move them up to third ahead of Sunday's games.

However, Brighton have failed to win any of their last five WSL meetings with Tottenham (two draws, three defeats), since a 2-1 home win in October 2021 under Hope Powell.

However, they have started the season excellently, especially at home. Brighton are unbeaten on home turf in the WSL in 2024-25, winning four of their five matches (one draw) – as many wins as they registered in their previous 25 such matches (four draws, 17 defeats).

There could be some drama here as nine of the total of thirteen penalties awarded in the WSL this season have come in matches involving Brighton (two for, two against) or Spurs (two for, three against) . Both sides now have sufficient attack ammunition.

Kiko Seike is Brighton's top scorer in the WSL this season. He scored five times from just fifteen shots, registering the best conversion rate of all players who scored three or more times (33%).

Meanwhile, only Mead and Khadija Shaw (eight apiece) have scored more WSL goals against Brighton than Spurs' Beth England (seven), who is now just three goals away from leveling Vivianne Miedema at the top of the all-time WSL scoring charts times.

The Opta supercomputer makes Brighton a slight favorite with a 43.1% chance of winning, with Spurs given a 30.2% chance and 26.7% of simulations finishing completely square.

EVERTON V MAN CITY

Merseyside is a very happy hunting ground for Manchester City and they will be looking forward to traveling to Walton Hall Park for Sunday's first match.

City have won more WSL games against Everton (eight) than any other team, while they have only scored more on the road against Brighton and Bristol City (both 25) than against the Toffees (24).

The Citizens are big favorites with the supercomputer, winning 73.8% of match simulations against Everton's 11.5%, with a finishing level of 14.5%.

Everton's only league win this season came in their most recent home match against Liverpool; they could now win back-to-back WSL home games for the first time since January 2023.

City, meanwhile, have dropped points in two of their last four away games (2-2 against Arsenal, 0-2 against Chelsea) after winning ten of their previous eleven away games.

Everton will have to deal with current Golden Boot leader 'Bunny' Shaw, who has scored nine goals so far this season. Five of those goals came via her head, and she has more such goals in total (24) than any other player in WSL history.

ASTON VILLA V WEST HAM

Aston Villa welcomes West Ham to Villa Park for a match between two teams that hover above the danger zone. Sunday's hosts are ninth with six points, just two behind West Ham, who are in eighth place.

Villa picked up their first win of the campaign in their final home game against Crystal Palace (3-2) and could now win back-to-back home games in the WSL for the first time. They have played the most home games in the competition without ever winning twice in a row (48).

It should be a day to remember for Jordan Nobbs as the WSL's all-time leading appearance scorer lists 200 appearances in the competition. She scored on her 100th WSL appearance in October 2018, representing Arsenal against Bristol City.

Villa need results to ensure they don't end up in the mud, and the supercomputer has their backs here, with a 53.2% chance of winning. West Ham have a 22.8% chance of a win and a 23.9% chance of a point.

CRYSTAL PALACE V MAN UTD

Sunday's fixtures also include the first league match between Palace and Manchester United since the 2018/19 Championship season, when the Red Devils defeated the Eagles 5-0 away and 7-0 at home.

Palace are bottom of the table and expected to stay there at Christmas, with the supercomputer giving them just a 13.6% chance of earning three points. United, meanwhile, are given a 69.6% chance of victory and a 16.8% chance of a draw.

United have a perfect record against promoted opponents in the WSL, winning all ten such matches, scoring 29 goals and conceding just once.

Marc Skinner's side recorded their biggest win of the season last weekend, beating Liverpool 4-0; Each of the Red Devils' last six wins – and twelve of the last fourteen – has come with a clean sheet.

Only Chelsea (nine times), Arsenal (seven) and United (six) have opened the scoring in the WSL more times this season than Palace (five), although the Eagles have dropped ten points from winning positions – if they notice they have an edge, the challenge will continue.

LIVERPOOL V ARSENAL

In the last match of the weekend, Arsenal visits Liverpool. The team seems transformed since Slegers took over from Jonas Eidevall.

The Gunners have won their last three league games and last won four in a row in the WSL in December 2023, when they went on a run of seven wins.

In their five WSL games under Slegers so far, Arsenal have conceded exactly once (v Man Utd), twice (v West Ham), three times (v Spurs), four times (v Aston Villa) and five times (v Brighton ) scored; the Gunners have not scored six goals in a league match since beating Leicester 6-2 last November.

On the opponent's bench, Matt Beard will not be looking forward to the visit of Arsenal. He has lost 16 of his 20 previous WSL meetings with Arsenal (three wins, one draw) and has lost to the Gunners with each of his clubs – seven times with Liverpool, four times with West Ham and Chelsea, once with Bristol City.

Liverpool's biggest threat could be Alessia Russo, who had a slow start to the season but has since scored in four consecutive WSL games. She could become the sixth Arsenal player to score five in a row, and the first since Mead in May 2022.

Arsenal are the big favorites with a 63% chance of victory, while Liverpool are only given a 17.4% hope and a 19.6% chance of a draw.

Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *