It's matchday 12 in the Women's Super League and we're hoping for as much action and drama as possible after last weekend's busy schedule.
The first weekend after the winter break certainly did not disappoint, with a cracking Manchester derby and plenty of goals from Arsenal and Chelsea, making it a real football weekend.
Chelsea continued their march to the top and remained six points clear of the chasing pack. Arsenal were the big winners, moving into second place after taking advantage of one of the most exciting Manchester derbies in WSL history.
Ella Toone, back from a calf injury, scored her first ever derby goal and scored a hat-trick as Man Utd put Man City to the sword 4-2 at the Etihad Stadium. That leaves United in third place, just one behind Arsenal on goal difference.
At the other end of the table, Everton picked up a valuable point against Aston Villa to stay clear of the drop zone. Crystal Palace, Leicester City and West Ham all lost and remain the bottom three.
So what does matchday 12 have in store for us, and what does Opta's supercomputer predict will happen as we look forward to a top-flight clash when Chelsea host Arsenal?
ASTON VILLA V MANCHESTER CITY
After what could have been the end of their title challenge last week, which saw them lose in the derby to Man Utd and fall further behind Chelsea, who are still in first place, Man City will be looking for ways to win as they travel to Aston Villa.
City have lost three of their last four WSL matches (W1), the same number of defeats as in their previous 30 league matches (W25 D2 L3). The Citizens could lose three in a row in the top flight for the second time, having also done so in September and October 2021.
However, the Opta supercomputer has them as favorites to win at 71% in this match, while the home side are only given a 12.8% chance, with a draw more likely at 16.1% than a Villa win.
This weekend marks a special milestone for the Villa faithful and will be Villa's 100th match in the WSL. Only one of the last five teams to celebrate the milestone match has won, with Man Utd beating Leicester City 1-0 in April 2024 (D2 L2).
City were disastrous in defense last time out, making five errors that led to shots and two errors that led to goals in their defeat to Man Utd last time out in the WSL, as many errors resulting in a shot as they suffered in their previous 34 competition matches. combined.
The Citizens have their own milestone to celebrate this weekend as this will be Gareth Taylor's 100th game in the WSL. Of the managers in charge of more than 20 games in the league, only Joe Montemurro (75.7%) has a better winning percentage than the Englishman (72.7% – P99 W72 D10 L17).
Villa will look to take advantage of a City side who appear to be lacking in confidence, especially Rachel Daly. Since her WSL debut for Villa in September 2022, only Khadija Shaw (50) has scored more goals in the top flight than her (35). She also scored in her two home games against City (three goals).
CHELSEA V ARSENAL
This draw could help decide the WSL title race, and if Arsenal have any ambition to challenge Chelsea and win the league, they need a win on Sunday. The lunch kick-off should be a football party.
It's the derby we all love, and it's also the most played match in WSL history, with the Blues winning 12 of the previous 28 meetings between the pair and the Gunners recording 10 wins (six draws).
Chelsea won early bragging rights this season by beating Arsenal 2-1 at the Emirates Stadium, forcing Jonas Eidevall to step down from his position as Arsenal manager. New head coach Renee Slegers has been a revelation for the Gunners, but can she beat Chelsea?
They will be hoping to break the trend and beat Chelsea as they have not won any of their last five WSL matches against the Blues (D1 L4) since winning 5-0 at Kingsmeadow in October 2018 under Montemurro.
Chelsea have won 10 of their 11 WSL matches this season (D1), the joint fastest side to reach double figures for wins in a season, along with Arsenal in both 2018/19 and 2019/20. Only the Gunners in the 2019-2020 season have won 11 of their first 12 games (L1).
So how does the supercomputer see this happening? The simulations yield no surprises and have Bompastor's side at 60.3% for the win, leaving Arsenal with an 18.9% chance of victory and the draw at 20.8%.
Arsenal's Alessia Russo will be looking to put her stamp on the tie, having scored in each of her last six WSL appearances and could become the fourth player in the competition's history to score in seven or more consecutive games after Bethany England ( nine in February 2020). ), Beth Mead (seven in August 2015) and Sam Kerr (seven in April 2022).
CRYSTAL PALACE V TOTTENHAM
Tottenham beat Crystal Palace 4-0 in the Eagles' first-ever WSL match in September and Spurs will now look to secure a league double against a newly promoted team for the third time in the last four seasons (including against Leicester in 2021 ). -22 and Bristol City in 2023-2024).
Palace have not had the success they would have liked in their debut season. They have taken just one point and scored just one goal in their five WSL home games (D1 L4), with only Yeovil Town winning fewer points (0) and no side scoring fewer goals after as many games at home in the competition ( Notts County also one goal).
The supercomputer doesn't give them much hope that the home form will improve, with only a 29.8% chance of a home win and 24.8% of a draw. The model suggests that Spurs should win this comfortably at 45.4%.
Palace are desperate for a glimmer of hope in their WSL survival and new signing Clarissa Larisey can provide that. She scored 12 goals in 12 games in the Scottish Women's Premier League for Celtic.
In 2022–2023, she also scored against Chelsea for her previous club, BK Hacken, in the group stage of the 2023–2024 UEFA Women's Champions League. She could be the quality they need to get points and turn the tide.
WEST HAM V EVERTON
West Ham beat Palace 5-2 at home on MD9 before losing 5-0 to Chelsea last time out on MD11; that is the first time in WSL history that a team has scored five goals at home and then conceded five goals in their next home game.
Everton (10 points) picked up a valuable point at home last time and will want to beat West Ham (eight points), who are just one place below them in the table. The supercomputer has this tie as the closest to the round.
The simulations indicate that West Ham should beat this one with a 41.2% chance of winning. However, the Toffees are hot on their heels with 32.2% and a draw of 26.7%.
West Ham have made the fewest changes to the starting line-up (11) and used fewer players (19) than any other team so far in the 2024/25 WSL, so it will be a surprise if Rehanne Skinner opts for too much change. here.
LEICESTER CITY V LIVERPOOL
Leicester City have won four points from their last three WSL home games (W1 D1 L1), more than in their previous eight games (three points – W1 L7). They will look to continue this form as they host Liverpool on Sunday.
Matt Beard's side were unbeaten in eight consecutive WSL away games (W6 D2) before losing the last two of 2024 to Everton (1-0) and Man Utd (4-0); the Reds have not lost three in a row in the same top-flight season since January 2020 under Victoria Jepson.
Supercomputing projects Liverpool will be the frontrunners in this tie with a 44.1% chance of winning. The Foxes won't lose hope though as they are given a 30.8% chance of getting three points and 25.1% of a draw.
However, Leicester have failed to score in eight of their 11 WSL matches this season, with only Yeovil Town in 2017/18 (11) ever going goalless in more games through the first 11 games of a season.
MANCHESTER UNITED V BRIGHTON
After a historic derby win over Man City, the Red Devils will want to make sure they follow up that result with another win. United could win four consecutive WSL matches (eight in a row) for the first time since October 2023.
However, Brighton won't be a problem and have been one of the surprise packages of the 2024-2025 WSL season so far.
Despite their good start, Brighton are on their longest winless run of the season (D1 L2), while they could lose four consecutive away games in the league for the first time since October 2022.
Nikita Parris became the fourth player to score in more than 50 different WSL matches last time out, joining Bethany England (60), Beth Mead (56) and Vivianne Miedema (55). She will be a major threat when she returns to face her old side and will be keen to spoil United's party.
United lost just one of their eleven WSL home games in 2024 (W7 D3), with only Chelsea (six), Arsenal (six) and Manchester City (six) winning more home games to nil than Marc Skinner's side (five) last year in the competition. top flight.
The supercomputer is also confident United will come out on top with a 73.3% chance of victory in the weekend's round of action. The Seagulls come out of the calculations with only an 11.2% chance of victory, while the draw is 15.5%.
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