Women’s Super League predictions: Can Chelsea bounce back against struggling Hammers?

The Women's Super League is back from the winter break, with teams on both sides of the table looking to start the second half of the season on a high.

Chelsea's perfect start under Sonia Bompastor was halted before half-time by a draw against Leicester City, but they will want to win again against West Ham.

There's also the Manchester derby to look forward to as both teams look to put some pressure on the Blues, while Arsenal, still undefeated under the management of interim boss Renee Slegers, take on Crystal Palace with the same goal in mind .

Before that, struggling Liverpool will host high-flying Brighton to restart the competition on Friday. Aston Villa head to home against Everton the next day, before Tottenham take on Leicester City to start Sunday's action.

But who will emerge victorious on matchday 11 according to the Opta supercomputer? Here we look at the data to find out.

The #BarclaysWSL is BACK this week! pic.twitter.com/i4oWFyEeCp

— Barclays Women's Super League (@BarclaysWSL) January 13, 2025

LIVERPOOL V BRIGHTON

Liverpool may feel that the winter break came at the right time for them, having lost each of their last four WSL matches without scoring a single goal, although it is predicted that they will be back at St Helen's Stadium going to win.

The Opta supercomputer gives them a 57.7% chance of triumphing against Brighton, with a 22% chance at the end of the match. The Seagulls, whose good start stalled just before half-time, have only a 20.3% chance of all three points.

The Reds have never lost five straight games without hitting the back of the net, and Brighton could be the perfect team to prevent that – they have won each of their last three WSL matches against the Seagulls, including a 4- 0 win in this match. exact match last season.

Dario Vidosic's side will be determined to turn their fortunes around again, but they were beaten 4-2 by Chelsea before battling to a 1-1 draw with Tottenham in their last two games.

As a surprise package, they have prioritized control. They rank first in terms of average ball possession (53.2%), passes made (4,917) and open set pieces of more than 10 passes (105) outside the top three, meaning Liverpool will have to work for their first victory since November 3.

EVERTON V ASTON VILLA

It took both Everton and Aston Villa until matchday eight to get their first win on the board, but they have since won two of their last three games to put some distance between themselves and the relegation zone.

The away side have won 88% of the eight WSL meetings between these teams, but the supercomputer favors Everton here, with a 43.5% chance of winning compared to Villa's 29.7%.

The Toffees boast a positive record against Villa, winning five of their eight league matches against them (L3), but recent history does not bode well for them.

Last season they lost this exact match 2-1, while they have only won their first league match in a calendar year twice since 2018 (L5).

And if they want to win on Saturday, they will have to find a way to keep Adriana Leon quiet – she has been involved in seven goals in her last eight WSL starts of 2024 (five goals, two assists).

TOTTENHAM V LEICESTER CITY

It has been a tough season for Leicester and Amandine Miquel so far, with just one win, but she will hope the 1-1 draw with league leaders Chelsea before half-time can provide a spark.

However, the Foxes have not won any of their last ten away games in the WSL (going 397 minutes without scoring) and have lost on each of their previous three trips to Tottenham.

Leicester are also bottom for total shots (68) and goals scored (three) in the league this season, so it's perhaps no surprise that Spurs are favorites to win this one.

The supercomputer gives the hosts, who are unbeaten in six games against Leicester, a 59.8% chance of victory. They have a 21.1% chance of leaving with a point, while Leicester have a 19.2% chance of achieving their second win of the campaign.

History can also be made on Sunday. Bethany England is just two goals away from becoming the WSL's all-time top scorer and could overtake Vivianne Miedema, while Manchester City are not in action until later in the day.

ARSENAL V CRYSTAL PALACE

Arsenal's turnaround under interim boss Renee Slegers has been nothing short of inspiring, and they could temporarily become second if they beat bottom club Crystal Palace.

After losing their first ever match against Man City, who they would skip in the table, in May 2014, Arsenal have since gone unbeaten in 25 WSL matches against promoted opponents (W22 D3), winning the last six in a row.

The Gunners are in formidable form and have won their last four league matches, but perhaps more worrying for Palace is the fact that their last trip to Arsenal in May 2021 ended in a 9-0 defeat in the FA Cup.

Arsenal are heavy favorites to extend their winning run to five games, with an 87.6% probability. Palace need something close to a miracle to upset the odds, with an 8% chance of a draw and a paltry 4.4% chance of claiming a shock three points.

WEST HAM V CHELSEA

Bompastor's team were stopped short of a WSL-winning record by their draw against Leicester, but the Blues are somehow still at the top of the pile.

Their total of 28 points after 10 games (W9 D1) is the best ever for a team at this stage of a WSL campaign, and it will take something special to halt their current onslaught.

West Ham have never beaten Chelsea in the WSL, failing to win any of the twelve games against them (D1 L11), with their only point coming from a 1–1 draw in March 2019.

Chelsea have scored both the most goals (70) and the fewest (13) against of any team in the WSL in 2024, and their dominance is expected to be demonstrated once again. The supercomputer gives Chelsea an 82.9% chance of winning.

The Hammers have won their last two home games, but the chance of that streak being extended to three is just 7.7%, while a draw is only slightly more likely at 9.4%.

MANCHESTER CITY V MANCHESTER UNITED

A blockbuster Manchester derby at the Etihad Stadium rounds off the weekend's WSL action, with the teams separated by just one point.

City not only want to close the gap with Chelsea at the top, but also recover from a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Everton before half-time. However, United could be the perfect opponent as City have lost just one of their 10 previous meetings with their neighbours.

A win at City would also mark Gareth Taylor's 73rd win as WSL manager, moving him straight into second for most wins in the competition, behind Emma Hayes with 151.

Marc Skinner's side can surpass City with a win, although the supercomputer only gives them an 18.6% chance of doing so. The Citizens are expected to prevail with 60.8% (20.6% if there is a draw).

However, the Red Devils have never won against their city rivals, with their only victory coming in this match at home in May 2023 (2-1).

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