Women’s Super League predictions: Seagulls’ wings to be clipped by perfect Chelsea?

The Women's Super League returns after the international break, with a Super Sunday slate of six matches that promises even more thrills and spills.

Chelsea remain perfectly at the top as the season races towards Christmas. They won their first eight WSL games under Sonia Bompastor – and their first 12 in all competitions.

Brighton and Hove Albion – who rise to third place after acquiring Chelsea icon Fran Kirby in the off-season – are the next team to try to halt their attack.

The day's action kicks off with a showdown between rivals Manchester United and Liverpool, while Chelsea's main challengers Manchester City take on Leicester City.

Elsewhere, Arsenal – still unbeaten under interim boss Renee Slegers – welcome Aston Villa and there are battles between Tottenham and Everton, and West Ham and Crystal Palace.

But which way will this week's matches go? We turned to the trusty Opta supercomputer to get its weekly predictions.

The #BarclaysWSL is back this weekend!

Which fixture are you most excited about? pic.twitter.com/GK2quhq3Ej

— Barclays Women's Super League (@BarclaysWSL) December 3, 2024

MAN UTD V LIVERPOOL

The Leigh Sports Village Stadium will play host to Sunday's first match as United look to bounce back from their first defeat of the season – against Chelsea last time out. They last suffered consecutive WSL defeats in the final two matchweeks of 2023-2024. Those defeats came against Chelsea and Liverpool.

However, the Red Devils can boast a positive record against Liverpool, winning two of their three at home against them in the WSL (one defeat), including a 6-0 win in January 2023, which remains their biggest win in the competition.

Liverpool, meanwhile, have lost their last two league games without scoring (0-3 against Chelsea, 0-1 against Everton); in November 2022 they last lost three in a row in the competition (run of five).

United will need to step up their attack after managing just three shots in the defeat to Chelsea on November 24, the fewest in their 110 WSL matches.

If they can find their shooting boots, they should be confident of victory. The Opta supercomputer gives them a 62% chance of a win, compared to 17.9% for Liverpool and a 20.1% chance of a draw.

TOTTENHAM VS EVERTON

Tottenham suffered heavy defeats to both Man City and Arsenal before the international break, and they will look to bounce back against Everton, who finally got their first win on the board last time out, beating Merseyside rivals Liverpool 1-0.

The Toffees have a 50% win rate against Tottenham in the WSL (five wins, four draws, one loss), but boast a better ratio against Aston Villa (63%) in the league.

Tottenham also have the leakiest defense in the division this season, with 21 goals in eight games – the most ever at this stage of a top-flight campaign.

Yet they are still favored by the supercomputer, with home advantage certainly a key factor as Everton are winless in four away games this season. Spurs were victorious in 53.3% of our pre-match simulations, with Everton winning 22.8% and finishing 23.9% completely square.

This weekend

@Castrol pic.twitter.com/dpKVPymd6y

— Tottenham Hotspur Women (@SpursWomen) December 3, 2024

MAN CITY V LEICESTER

Gareth Taylor's Man City start an hour ahead of the leaders and have the chance to close the gap at the top – even if only temporarily – to two points when they host Leicester.

A win for the hosts would make Taylor's 72nd in the WSL and put him level with Nick Cushing for the second-most wins by any manager in the competition's history (Emma Hayes has 151).

The supercomputer is certainly fancy in its chances of climbing those charts, with City triumphing in 89.5% of pre-match simulations, losing in just 3.6% and being held to a draw in 6.8%.

Although City's unbeaten start to the season was halted by Chelsea last time out, it is easy to see why they are such heavy favourites. They have won 11 of their last 12 home WSL games (one loss) and have never lost on home turf in the month of December (eight games, seven wins, one draw).

Chloe Kelly will be one to watch for struggling Leicester after scoring in each of her last three WSL matches against the Foxes. However, she is currently experiencing her longest drought in the league, failing to score in thirteen games since she last scored in February – against Leicester.

CHELSEA V BRIGHTON

Chelsea coach Bompastor has already made history by winning her first eight WSL games at the helm – a feat no manager had achieved before.

On Sunday, her Blues team could equal the best-ever start to a season in competition history, as only Arsenal have ever started a season with nine consecutive wins in the 2018/19 season.

However, Brighton have won five of eight league matches this season and are third, eight points behind the Blues. The Seagulls have already recorded as many wins in the 2023/24 season as they did all of last season in the top flight (five).

Former Chelsea star Kirby was key to their rise, registering a goal and an assist as they beat West Ham 3-2 last time out. That made her only the fourth player to record 100 or more WSL goal involvements, with her total of 101 now surpassed only by Vivianne Miedema (116) and Beth Mead (111). Beth England has exactly 100.

Despite Brighton's strong start, Chelsea are – as most observers would expect – big favorites.

The supercomputer gives the Blues a 90.8% chance of remaining perfect, with Brighton only given a 3.1% chance of victory and the chance of a draw estimated at 6%.

ARSENAL V ASTON VILLA

Chelsea aren't the only team likely to curse the timing of the international break. Arsenal have been on a roll since Slegers took over from Jonas Eidevall, going unbeaten in seven games in all competitions under their interim coach.

With Aston Villa winning just once in eight games this season, the Gunners are heavy favorites (83.3%) to win with the supercomputer on Sunday. Villa are given just a 6.2% chance of inflicting Slegers' first defeat, and a 10.5% chance of escaping from the Emirates Stadium with a point.

Arsenal have won their last two WSL matches without conceding and could now record three consecutive wins to nil for the first time since October 2022, when they completed a remarkable run of ten straight wins without conceding.

They have been boosted by the return to form of Alessia Russo, who is looking to score for the first time in four consecutive games in the WSL. Only Khadija Shaw and Guro Reiten (four) improved on her three WSL goals in the month of November.

However, the Gunners better beware of Villa's strong record in London. Only Man City (55%) and Man Utd (35%) have a better WSL winning percentage in the capital than Villa (29%) among clubs from outside London.

WEST HAM V CRYSTAL PALACE

Sunday's action ends with a London derby between West Ham and Crystal Palace, with the two teams occupying the bottom two places in the league with five points each.

The supercomputer considers this match to be the most difficult match in the entire division on matchday nine. West Ham won 45.7% of our pre-match simulations, with 26.8% going the final level and 27.5% going Palace's way.

Since the start of last season, West Ham have lost the most games (18), won the fewest points (20), conceded the most goals (59) and scored the fewest goals (26) of any team ever present in the competition. the WSL.

However, they beat Leicester in their last home game and will have noticed Palace's tendency to throw away points.

Only Villa (eight) have dropped more points from winning positions this season than Palace (seven) in the WSL, with the Eagles leading 1-0 in three of their last four league matches but failing to win any.