WSL: Bragging rights and title hopes on the line in Manchester derby

Manchester will be the focus of the Women's Super League fans on Sunday.

The WSL is back from the winter break and the main match sees Manchester City welcome Manchester United to the Etihad Stadium.

Both teams are chasing Chelsea, who remain undefeated at the top of the table, so there is more at stake than just bragging rights.

This will be Manchester's 10th derby in the WSL, with Man City leading the head-to-head by five wins to one.

However, these rivals are forces to be reckoned with. Gareth Taylor and Marc Skinner have built teams that have challenged for the WSL title in recent years, although both teams fell short against an all-conquering Chelsea.

As it stands, City are second in the table with 22 points, six points behind Chelsea. United are in fourth place, just a point behind their neighbors and level with Arsenal, who have a better goal difference.

Here we take a look at an enthralling Manchester derby.

Can City cope with the injuries?

The winter break couldn't have come at a better time for Taylor's City, who were ravaged by injury in their last game in December.

Lauren Hemp and Alex Greenwood have suffered long-term injuries, and Khadija “Bunny” Shaw also experienced problems before halftime.

Man City have lost two of their last three WSL matches (W1), having dropped just points in two of their previous 23 league matches (W21 D1 L1). They suffered a shock 2-1 defeat to Everton in their final match before half-time.

They also lost 3-0 to Barcelona in the Champions League, losing a match in the group stage for the first time this season, which affected their qualification for the knockout rounds when they begin in March.

The loss of hemp was perhaps the biggest blow.

She is, along with Alessia Russo, one of two players in the competition to have contributed seven goals. Hemp provided five assists and scored twice. Hemp also leads the WSL for expected assists (3.56) and chances created (26).

The injury setbacks have also hinted at City's over-reliance on Shaw. Her absence proved costly at the end of last season, and was perhaps decisive in their failure to cross the line in the title race.

Shaw is the WSL's top scorer, with nine goals. She is also the leader in goals contributions (10), with no other player having played a direct role in more than seven goals, but they need other players to step up.

City will be pleased with the return of Vivianne Miedema in last weekend's 3-0 FA Cup win over Ipswich Town. Miedema, who made her first appearance since October after recovering from a knee injury, scored the third goal.

Only time will tell whether these injuries will damage their title chances, but they need to beat United on Sunday to keep Chelsea within their grasp. Historically, City have had the advantage in this tie, but the two sides may never have been so close.

Is this city big enough for two?

Manchester United have never won a WSL away match against City (D1 L4), with their only win over the Citizens coming 2-1 at home in May 2023.

City have also won their first WSL match in each of the last five calendar years by an aggregate score of 23-2, so the odds are against United.

Taylor's team are the second highest scorers in the league, with 21 goals, but that is 10 fewer than leaders Chelsea (31). City also rank second in expected goals (21.89 – behind Chelsea's 22.98), shots (168) and shots on target (64). City's shot conversion rate (12.5%) ranks fifth in the division.

But United are a solid unit. No team has conceded as few goals as United in the WSL this season (three). Through the first ten games of a WSL campaign, only eventual 2016 champions Man City (two) have conceded fewer goals in the competition's history.

That's despite United conceding chances worth 11.06 xG, which is a higher figure than Arsenal (5.85), Man City (7.98) and Chelsea (8.54).

United have kept the most clean sheets along with Arsenal (seven), so City will need to ensure their fit attackers can shoot at full range.

The Citizens have had more big chances (32) than United (25), but the Red Devils boast a better conversion rate for big chances (40% compared to City's 37.5%).

Only Arsenal (27) have missed more big chances than City (20) in the WSL this season. The Gunners have also faced fewer shots on target than Man City this season (30).

A tale of two tacticians?

There are a number of important milestones at stake for City boss Taylor.

Should City win, he will become the manager with the second most wins in WSL history, on 73, ahead of Nick Cushing (72) and behind only Emma Hayes (151).

This match also marks Taylor's 99th WSL match in charge of Man City. Excluding the Spring Series, Taylor becomes only the third WSL manager to reach 100 games in charge of one club, after Kelly Chambers (134 at Reading) and Emma Hayes (204 at Chelsea).

Taylor is desperate to win City's first trophy since winning their first and only WSL title in 2016. He has finished second twice in the last four seasons – in 2020-21 and 2023-24 – while City finished third in 2021. 22.

He has a fine record against United, having won three of his six WSL derbies, including each of the last two. He'll definitely think he's marked Skinner's card.

Skinner, on the other hand, has recorded just one league win against Taylor and that came in 2023 when United defeated City 2-1. From 11 meetings with Man City in the WSL as manager, Skinner – who previously played for Birmingham City – has managed just two wins and lost six.

United lost the WSL's best goalkeeper last summer when Mary Earps left for Paris Saint-Germain. However, Skinner had a plan…

Who are United's breakout artists?

United have found another superstar between the posts in Phallon Tullis-Joyce, who has made 30 saves in her 10 WSL games. Her save percentage of 90.91 is the best of any goalkeeper in the division this season.

She also tops the WSL for save percentage of shots inside the box (88%) and tops for save percentage of shots outside the box (100%).

The American's 6.06 goal prevention rate is by far the best in the WSL, with Arsenal's Daphne van Domselaar (3.08) next. Tullis-Joyce has kept seven clean sheets, another league-high.

In front of her is a vicious defense, led by Maya Le Tissier and Millie Turner.

No defender in the league has kept more clean sheets this season than Turner and Le Tissier (seven). The latter has also shone for England, with the 2025 European Championship just around the corner.

Le Tissier leads United's defenders for clearances (47), headed clearances (21), interceptions (15), tackles (24), successful duels (49), aerial duels (34, equal to Turner), aerial duels won (22), passes (636) and successful passes (495).

Turner has the highest success rate (84.62%) of any United defender this season, completing 11 of her 13 tackles. In addition, Dominique Janssen – who joined in the summer – helped create a red wall.

It is no coincidence that United are in the top flight, having only been beaten by league leaders Chelsea this season. But they also have flair for the future.

Earlier this month, United included a one-year extension clause in Grace Clinton's contract. Skinner has the opportunity to build this United side around one of the most exciting talents the league has to offer.

Clinton has scored four goals from just 1.98 xG, showing a high level of finishing.

She has created 13 chances, more than any other United player in the WSL this season, while Geyse (47) is the only one of her teammates to attempt more dribbles than Clinton (40).

Clinton (37) is also second to Elisabeth Terland (38) for open-play shot-ending sequences among United players in the WSL this season.

But the midfielder is no stranger when it comes to action. She has contested (173) and won (80) more matches this season than any other player in the WSL.

With one eye on the summer, Clinton wants to make sure she shines in the biggest games and prove she can be a starter for Sarina Wiegman at Euro 2025. In a match that could be too close to call, Clinton could be the difference maker be and paint the city red.

What does the Opta supercomputer say?

That said, what does the supercomputer call this?

City have taken 18 points from a possible 27 in the WSL against United, scoring 18 goals in those matches and conceding just nine, so it is perhaps not surprising to see our model make them the heavy favorites with a win of 60.8%. probability.

Despite United's good form in this tie, our model only gives them an 18.6% chance of victory.

The threat of a draw, meanwhile, stands at 20.6%.

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