It feels a little early to be talking about a title decider, but this weekend's Women's Super League action could deliver just that as Chelsea welcome Arsenal to Stamford Bridge, where the Blues are still unbeaten and hoping to take a ten-point lead at the top.
This is one of the most closely played matches in WSL history, with the Blues winning 12 of the previous 28 meetings between the teams and the Gunners recording 10 wins (six draws).
Under new coach Sonia Bompastor, Chelsea have dominated on all fronts this season, with the former Lyon boss looking to make her own history in the post-Emma Hayes era.
The Blues have won 10 of their 11 WSL matches this season (one draw), jointly fastest side with Arsenal to reach double figures for wins in a season in 2018/19 and 2019/20. Only the Gunners have won eleven of their first twelve games in 2019-20.
In the reverse fixture in October, Chelsea took bragging rights, winning 2–1 at the Emirates Stadium. It was an embarrassing affair for Arsenal as they conceded twice early on in the 12 minutes and it was ultimately the result that led to Jonas Eidevall's resignation.
After that game, the Opta supercomputer put Arsenal's chances of winning the WSL title at 1.4%, down from 16.1% at the start of the season.
It was the worst start in Arsenal's WSL history, and only one team has ever won the title after winning just one of their first four games.
But fast forward to January and Arsenal – previously seen as no-hopers – are at the head of the chasing pack and looking for revenge.
New boss, new Arsenal
What has changed for Arsenal? The answer is Renée Slegers.
Following Eidevall's departure, the Gunners looked to his former assistant to manage the club on an interim basis while their search for a permanent replacement began.
Arsenal soon realized they didn't need to look any further than the Dutch coach as she restored the confidence the Gunners players had sorely missed.
Her impressive stats show why Arsenal's leadership eventually made her permanent boss. Her start as a manager ranks as one of the best the league has ever seen.
Slegers has won six of her seven WSL matches under Arsenal's management. She is behind only Bompastor in terms of points scored in a manager's first seven WSL games, level with her predecessor Eidevall.
The inability to score goals was one of Arsenal's biggest shortcomings at the start of the season, but the Gunners have turned this around under Slegers.
Arsenal scored 21 goals in the WSL under Slegers, with an average of three per game. Only two managers in the WSL (Eidevall – 24 and Bompastor – 25) have ever seen their team score more goals in their first seven games in charge.
But it's not just in attack where she has given the team confidence, their defensive shape has also improved. Slegers' Arsenal have conceded just once in the competition, making her the manager with the fewest goals conceded in her first seven WSL games.
Arsenal have won each of their last five WSL games without conceding, with the last team to post a longer winning streak being the Gunners themselves in October 2022 (10 straight wins to nil).
So she had confidence in the team and scored goals, which could not be said under Eidevall. Arsenal approach Sunday's match on the back of a 5-0 win in the WSL against bottom club Crystal Palace last time out.
They also scored four past Brighton in the League Cup quarter-final in midweek, making it nine goals in their last two games, with seven different players on the scoresheet.
Slegers are also making the most of the summer by signing Mariona Caldente, who has scored two of her three WSL goals since the winter break.
However, stopping Chelsea will be Slegers' toughest test yet.
Bombastor's attack increases
So far in the 2024-2025 season, Chelsea are the only team to score in every WSL match, have scored the most shots in the division (220) and have the highest expected goals (25.3 xG).
While other teams have struggled due to an over-reliance on one goal scorer, Chelsea's goals come from everywhere. Chelsea have had fourteen different goalscorers in the WSL so far this season.
Guro Reiten is their current top scorer with six, while she is also the leading Blues player for xG (4.19), chances created (25) and expected assists (3.7 xA), with Johanna Rytting Kaneryd second with 1.76 xA.
Reiten is yet to record an assist this season, while Rytting Kaneryd has two. Nevertheless, the former's excellent performances were rewarded earlier this month when Chelsea activated a clause to extend her contract until 2026.
In the WSL, only Khadija Shaw (nine) and Alessia Russo (seven) have scored more goals than Reiten. Despite her lack of assists, Reiten's 3.7 xA figure is the highest in the league, with only Katie McCabe (27) and Lauren Hemp (26) creating more chances than her 25.
Elsewhere, Aggie Beever-Jones is living up to the hype as one of Chelsea's brightest young players. She has only started four WSL matches but is their second highest scorer with five goals. She has had the second most shots of any Chelsea player (25) and averages a goal every 98.8 minutes.
Beever-Jones has scored 11 goals in her last 10 WSL starts, scoring each of her last four goals. Only Shaw (78 minutes) has a better minutes per goal in the division than the Lioness (minimum 180 minutes) this season.
Five different Chelsea players have had 20 or more shots in the WSL this season: Rytting Kaneryd (26), Beever-Jones and Reiten (25), Sjoeke Nusken (23) and Mayra Ramirez (20). Only Manchester City has seen so many players score 20 attempts on goal.
Bompastor has maintained Chelsea's reputation as one of the most dangerous teams in Europe and ensured the triumphant end to Hayes' reign has not faded.
Ruso in the elevator
After a slow start to the season, Arsenal striker Russo has finally found form and this has been a major factor in their recent recovery.
Among Arsenal's players, no one can surpass Russo's goals, xG, shot or goal involvement figures in the WSL this season, while she also has a shot conversion rate of 18.42%.
Under Eidevall, Russo failed to score in three league starts, despite posting 1.31 xG from nine shots.
Since Slegers' appointment, Russo has scored seven goals from 3.84 xG, an average of one goal every 80 minutes. She has also had 29 shots, 15 more than second-best Frida Maanum (14). Her newfound confidence is plain for all to see.
Manchester City star Shaw, the only player to outscore Russo in the WSL this season, is also the only player to register a higher xG figure (6.32 to Russo's 5.14). Russo also ranks second in the league in goals (nine – seven goals, two assists) and total shots (38), behind Shaw in both categories.
Russo has scored in each of her last six WSL appearances and could become the fourth player in WSL history to score seven or more consecutive games, after Bethany England (nine in February 2020), Beth Mead (seven in August 2015) and Sam Kerr (seven in August 2015). seven in April 2022).
Chelsea will be desperate to nullify the threat of Russo, who showed her credentials as a major player with her contribution to England's triumphant Euro 2022 campaign.
Chelsea defends formidable record
Arsenal have failed to win any of their last five WSL matches against Chelsea (one draw, four defeats) since the 5-0 win over Kingsmeadow in October 2018 under Joe Montemurro.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have won 40 of their last 42 home games in the WSL (one draw, one defeat), a run that started with a 3-0 win against Arsenal in February 2021. The Blues have won all seven games of their previous competition. matches at Stamford Bridge.
Neutrals hope for goals and can also hope to see a few. Chelsea (three times) and Arsenal (twice) are the only teams to win a WSL match by five or more goals this season, with both sides winning their most recent league match 5-0.
Can Arsenal upset the odds?
What does the supercomputer Opta predict for Sunday's match?
With a 60.3% chance of winning, Chelsea are the overwhelming favourites, with the odds of a draw considered 20.8% and an Arsenal win only occurring in 18.9% of simulations.
Chelsea have a 96.7% chance of winning the title, according to the supercomputer. The model predicts that Arsenal will finish second, with a 48.6% chance of doing so.
However, if Arsenal can do what no one else has been able to achieve this season and beat Chelsea, then maybe, just maybe, there is life left in the title race.
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