To find the source of Wolves' alarming decline under Gary O'Neil, we have to go back much further than the start of this season.
O'Neil was sacked on Sunday after a dismal return of nine points from the first fifteen league games.
Blame it on a ferocious opening run of games, rough VAR calls or losing the top two players. Very few managers survive such a run, especially when player discipline breaks down, as in O'Neil's last two games, against West Ham and Ipswich.
It was grimly appropriate that his tenure would end in farce both off and on the field, with chairman Jeff Shi's column in the local paper last Thursday. He supported O'Neil in that article before firing him 72 hours later.
Yet this story started last January. O'Neil found himself desperately short in attack and thought he had a deal to sign Armando Broja from Chelsea on an initial loan deal. At the time, Wolves were 11th, but with an outside chance of qualifying for European competition. Broja had received little playing time at Stamford Bridge and was keen to move to Molineux.
Facing the prospect of breaking spending rules and receiving points deductions, those in charge of the finances said no. Since the window closed on February 1, Wolves' form has been desperate.
O'Neil has made mistakes. The switch from a back three to a back four felt like an attempt to fix something that wasn't broken – and as if to prove the point, he had returned to a three-man defense by the end of his reign.
Before this season, O'Neil's results were better than his team's underlying performance indicated, and a manager will always catch up with that eventually.
According to Opta's 'expected points' statistic, which is calculated using the respected xG (expected goals) formula studied by all top clubs, O'Neil's Bournemouth would have finished 19th in 2022-23, and Wolves last season 17th.
O'Neil has always played a good game, manages his image carefully and is incredibly impressive in job interviews. Because he took over the job on the eve of last season and made a strong start, it is possible that the wider football community has overestimated his abilities.
In Wolves' circumstances, a manager needs one of three things to survive. He must have significant experience, be a brilliant coach and tactician, or an inspiring leader. O'Neil will rack up miles, but it's unclear if he'll ever develop the other qualities.
Yet he shouldn't be written off either – especially since the 41-year-old isn't the only one responsible for this mess.
The transfer policy has been chaotic and that is not O'Neil's fault. Anyone with a passing interest in Wolves knew they would need a new centre-back after captain Max Kilman joined West Ham in July.
Yet Wolves panicked after the 6-2 home defeat to Chelsea on August 25 and decided they needed a replacement for goalkeeper Jose Sa rather than a new centre-back.
Their original target was Aaron Ramsdale, but they ended up spending £10 million on Sam Johnstone, who isn't an obvious upgrade for Sa. That's why the spotlight should also be focused on Shi and sports director Matt Hobbs.
Since sacking Nuno Espirito Santo at the end of the 2020-21 season, Shi's approach to hiring and dealing with managers has been mixed at best.
Hobbs became sporting director in November 2022 and has had some success in the market, most notably signing Brazilian midfielder Joao Gomes for £15.7 million.
The downside is that almost £65 million was spent on eight players in the summer of 2024, making the squad look weaker. Did Wolves actually need Andre, another Brazilian midfielder, costing £23m from Fluminense, more than that elusive defender?
O'Neil is not the type to publicly grill his bosses, although he was concerned about the fitness of on-loan striker Jorgen Strand Larsen and did not believe winger Rodrigo Gomes, who cost £12.7 million from the Portuguese club Braga, was planning the mark.
Mail Sport also understands that O'Neil was concerned about the future at the end of last season. He had seen the Broja deal fall through and was ready for Kilman and Pedro Neto to leave – which they did, to West Ham and Chelsea respectively.
Those around O'Neil wondered whether Wolves' revised recruitment policy, based on signing cheap youngsters with resale value, would let him down.
Although he was not actively looking to leave, it is believed that O'Neil would have taken it seriously if a Premier League rival had been approached at that stage, but his shares were already falling.
After an excellent first half of the season, his team collected just five points from the last ten games of 2023-2024. Under the circumstances, it seemed strange to commit O'Neil and his staff to new four-year deals in August.
Although he had good relationships with certain players, most notably star forward Matheus Cunha, O'Neil is probably not the natural leader this complex locker room needs. Gone are the days of Conor Coady and Ruben Neves, whose personalities other players carried with them through most of Nuno Espirito Santo's reign.
With 16 different nationalities, this team is a delicate mix. While players aren't at each other's throats, it's a far cry from the Nuno era, when they'd visit each other's homes during the week to play pool or game consoles.
It is thought that there is limited camaraderie in this group, and few strong characters. This was clearly visible on the pitch, where Wolves conceded forty goals in the competition. Mario Lemina was stripped of the captaincy after losing his rag at West Ham and Cunha and Rayan Ait-Nouri will be punished after unsavory scenes at the end of the match in Ipswich.
Many fans have been disillusioned since the 2020/21 season, when performances started to decline under Nuno.
Chinese owners Fosun International have been in control since 2016 and for six of those years Wolves have played in the Premier League, where they reached the semi-finals of the FA Cup and the quarter-finals of the Europa League. Unfortunately for them, the sharpest memories are the most recent.
For many fans, the answer is simple: the best players have left, Fosun has turned off the spending tap and season ticket prices have gone up. They feel Wolves are caught in a spiral of diminishing returns, at risk of ending up in the Championship.
Shi has recently been in discussions with the council about joint funding partnerships to improve Molineux and promote the city of Wolverhampton. These are admirable goals, but his primary focus should be to rebuild a structure that can give these disgruntled supporters more teams to remember. It would be foolish to underestimate the magnitude of that challenge.
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