There have been 47 cases that a team took a lead of at least three goals in the second stage of a Champions League Knock -outdie, and only four of those teams have been eliminated.
So the signs are good for Arsenal while they travel to the Santiago Bernabeu to face Real Madrid, hoping to reach their first semi-final of the Champions League since 2009.
Los Blancos has become famous for their European fighting backs and took out a big escape to beat Bayern Munich on the way to winning their 15th Continental Crown last year, who also did against Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea and Manchester City in 2021-22.
But after two Declan Rice Free-Kicks Arsenal helped last week to a 3-0 win in the first stage at the Emirates Stadium, the men of Carlo Ancelotti need their best comeback.
Do they have it to book a fifth consecutive semi-final appearance and to end Mikel Artetas about silverware?
In anticipation of the decisive second stage on Wednesday, we go through the best Opta -Feiten and Statistics and check in on the prediction of the OPTA -Supercomputer for the draw.
What is expected?
Arsenal -fans may not breathe easily, but the OPTA -SUPERCOMPUTER is firmly on their side when it comes to the general winner of the draw.
The Gunners reach the semi-final of the Champions League in 92% of the tournament simulations, where Madrid only does this in 8%.
That is despite the fact that Madrid has assigned a 54.8% chance of winning in Wednesday's competition, with Arsenal won in 21.6% of simulations and 23.6% is drawn.
Arsenal has a fantastic record against the Spanish giants, remains unbeaten to them in three meetings (two wins, one draw) and does not admit any goal.
They could be the first team to keep four consecutive clean sheets against Madrid in the European Cup/Champions League, and defeated them 1-0 in the last 16 of the 2005-06 edition, via a Thierry Henry goal in the Bernabeu.
Arsenal reached the final that year and went to Barcelona in Paris.
About the 53 previous matches that Madrid played against English parties in the European Cup/Champions League, they have only succeeded twice in gaining more than three goals.
They defeated Derby County 5-1 in the round of 16 in 1975-76 and Tottenham 4-0 in the quarterfinals 2010-11.
Madrid needs a miracle
The aforementioned victory over Derby represents the only time that Madrid ever destroyed a shortage of three goals after the first stage of a European Cup/Champions League equal game.
After losing 4-1 on the baseball field, Los Blancos entered the quarterfinals with a memorable home victory.
After going down 3-0, Derby ran back in a total lead through the goal of Charlie George, but a late penalty from Pirri sent the draw to extra time, in which Santillana got the winner.
Madrid tried and failed to destroy a 3-0 deficit from the first leg in Europe's Premier Club competition on three other occasions.
And since the rebrand of the Champions League, only Deportivo La Coruna (versus AC Milan in 2003-04), Barcelona (against PSG 2016-17), Roma (against Barca in 2017-18) and Liverpool (also against Barca in 2018-19) have a 3-0 first-explicit to win a knockout.
If reports from Spain have to be believed, Ancelotti's task is seriously threatened, and only an epic fightback will be enough to give him a chance to lead Madrid next season.
But as midfielder Jude Bellingham told TNT Sports last week: “If there is one place where crazy things happen, it is our house.”
This will be the 16th time since the beginning of 2015-16 that Madrid played the second stage of a Champions League-Knock-out draw at home, and they were only eliminated once in the previous 15 and go out to Ajax in the last 16 in 2018-19.
They certainly have the firepower to make things nervous for Arsenal.
Vinicius Junior was hardly involved in the first stage, but he is one Champions League objective of reaching his half century (currently 49-28 goals, 21 assists).
He could be the fourth Madrid player who brought up that figure after Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema and Raul, who would be at least twice as much as any other club.
The wing player, who has scored seven goals and has set up this period in more in Europe, is also about to become only the second Madrid player, after Ronaldo, to include 10+ target contributions in four consecutive Champions League campaigns.
Ronaldo did this in eight consecutive seasons in the competition, while Vinicius is currently bound to Raul and Benzema on three.
And fellow attacker Kylian Mbappe, who was sent away on Sunday for a horror challenge on Alaves' Antonio Blanco, has been involved in eight goals in eight knock-out stage matches against English teams in the Champions League (seven goals, one assist).
That figure comprises five out of four games in the Bernabeu (four goals, one assist), including a hat trick in the play-off victory of February at Manchester City.
Arsenal cannot rest yet.
Gunners to hunt a murderer goal?
The victory of Arsenal was the 12th time that an English side with three or more goals had won in the first stage of a knockout trumpet of the Champions League, in which none of those leads was ever destroyed.
But the Gunners would be wise to prevent every complacency in the Bernabeu, where it often feels like the pure weight of history can suck the ball into the network of visitors.
Arteta's Kant has a huge defense record this season and only gives 0.55 goals per match in the Champions League. Only in 2005-06, when they reached the final, did they admit less (0.31).
But it may simply be that attack is the best form of defense for the Gunners, because their 2.55 goals per match in the Champions League is also them on the second best figure in a single edition (after 2.63 in 2005-06).
In the first stage, Arsenal was just too dynamic for their opponents, with Bukayo Saka David Alaba time and time again defeating Rice in midfield.
Although he had more possession, with a share of 53.4%, Arsenal did 115 pressure in the intensity in the last third third Tuesday.
That was more than three times as much as Madrid succeeded, with Los Blancos' count of 36 who represent the least of each team involved in the quarter -finals first legs of this season.
Madrid will also be without one of their most physically gifted players after Eduardo Camavinga was sent away for kicking the ball in stopping time last week.
Camavinga's impressive Tackle -Succe percentage of 80.77% (21/25) is the best of each player trying at least 20 tackles in the Champions League this season. If Arteta is again daring with his approach, Arsenal can be rewarded.
Players to watch
Real Madrid – Jude Bellingham
Just missing the top 10 for the success rate of the Tackle is Bellingham van Madrid (72%, 18.25). Although more famous for his contributions in the attack, the English international may have to show his combative side against Rice and Company.
Florian Wirtz and Michael Olise (both seven) are the only midfielders with more Champions League -focused involvement than this term of Bellingham, and he enjoys these large occasions.
If Madrid completed the wonderful, expects Bellingham to play a major role.
Arsenal-Myles Lewis-Skelly
In the first stage, Lewis-Skelly only became the third English teenager to help a goal in a Champions League-Knock-Outstage match.
All three did this while playing for Arsenal, where the others are Theo Walcott in 2008 (versus Milan and Liverpool) and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain in 2012 (also against Milan).
Lewis-Skelly will certainly have more to do with a test on the other side, with Madrid's right wing Rodrygo remained silent in North London. That duel could be the key to determine the outcome, because Arsenal aims to take a huge step towards potential European glory.
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