It is all to play for when Bayern Munich goes to San Siro for the second stage of a subtly gilded Champions League quarterfinals.
Inter Lead 2-1 on aggregated the following goals of Lautaro Martinez and Davide Frattesi, who came on either side of an attempt by Thomas Muller.
The Serie A-leaders-two place in Manchester City in 2023 trips something of a smash-and-grab in Allianz Arena, where Vincent Kompany's Bayern had 20 attempts and registered 2.3 expected goals.
That is twice as many shots as the visitors had, and more than double the XG (0.78), but it was Inter that came away with a slim benefit.
“We had a great depth in our game and that makes us happy,” said Interbaas Simone Inzaghi after the first stage.
“We know Bayern's figures, we have done something important, but it doesn't matter unless we do it for our fans in the second stage in San Siro. We know that it is just the peace in the draw.”
In the meantime, Kompany regretted the opportunities his team missed, but is convinced that Bayern can come across the line.
He said: “I know that Inter Weer Long away from home is difficult, but I don't think we should be defeated because of injuries or things like that. We also have our chances in Milan.”
Let's dive into some of the most important pre-match feet and predictions prior to what promises to be a fascinating second stage.
What is expected?
The Supercomputer of Opta had 10,000 simulations guided by data and Bayern came at the top of 38.5% of them.
In the meantime, Inter was the victors in this leg at 36.3% of the results. The general opportunities of the Nerazzurri to continue in the draw are 72%.
They have a 17% chance of winning the trophy, while Bayern's chances are only 4%.
Bayern, however, has reason to be positive. All four of their away games have won against Inter in European competition, including all three in the Champions League without giving a single goal (2-0 in 2006, 1-0 in 2011 and 2-0 in 2022).
This is the longest losing series of Inter Thuis for an opponent in all European matches.
The last six meetings between Inter and Bayern in the Champions League have each won both parties three times, while only one of those six wins was achieved by the team that plays at home (Bayern won 2-0 in November 2022 at home).
Fort San Siro
Inter has been in this competition in this competition in this competition in recent years.
The Inzaghi team is unbeaten in their last 14 home games in the Champions League (won 12, signed two). This is now the longest current run in the competition, after they have ended Bayern's 22 game streak in the Allianz Arena in the first stage.
The Nerazzurri are also advanced from 21 of their previous 23 knock -out stage tires in the European Cup/Champions League after winning the first stage.
One of those two eliminations came last season, but lost in the last 16 penalties against Atletico Madrid, after winning 1-0 in the first stage (2-2 on aggregated, lost 3-2 on penalties).
This season they only admitted three Champions League goals, so their success has been built on solid foundations.
Although it is not all about leaning back and sucking up attacks. In fact, Inter 573 has applied pressure in the first stage in the first stage, the most by a team in a Champions League match this season, because they wanted to capture Bayern.
One of their consistent artists at the back is Benjamin Pavard, who has added 10 performances in the competition this period. The former Bayern defender could make his 50th Champions League appearance on Wednesday.
With 40 victories from his 49 games so far (pulled five, lost four), he already has the most victories of each player in their first 50 games in the history of the competition.
Could it be Muller time?
Bayern is only advanced from one of their last eight Champions League knockout phase tires after losing the first stage, although that came in the most recent (3-1 on aggregated against Lazio in the round of 16 last season).
However, things could have been very different if they had been more clinical in the first stage. Although underlining their XG this period is nothing new for Bayern.
The Kompany side has the best expected target difference in the Champions League (+19.3 – 32.6 XG against, 13.3 XG against) this season, although their real target difference is only +13 (29 scored, 16).
This represents the biggest negative difference from each party to be eligible from the competition phase (-6.3).
The player who received Bayern's Equalizer last week, before Fratesi hit the other side, was experienced campaigner Muller.
28 – Bayern's Thomas Müller scored his 28th goal in the knockout phase of the UEFA Champions League, more than three times as much as the second best German German in this phase (Mario Gomez: 9). pic.twitter.com/fuljhdtx4
– Optafranz (@Optafranz) 8 April 2025
Muller, who will soon apply his 500th Bundesliga appearance, will leave Bayern at the end of the season.
And when he rises on Wednesday, he will be Lionel Messi (163) equal to Champions League performances, so that he is only behind Cristiano Ronaldo (183) and Iker Casillas (177) in general.
With his goal in the first stage, the German became the oldest player who scored in a knockout stage competition in the competition for Bayern (35 years, 207 days). Can he do the damage again?
Players to watch
Inter – Lautaro Martinez
The opener of Martinez last week was an exceptional, outside-the-boat finish that showed the quality of world class that the attacker has in abundance and brought him to seven Champions League goals for the season.
The Argentin has scored in each of his last four Champions League matches and could become the first Inter player that could be received in the competition in five consecutive performances.
Only two players have scored more this season for Inter in one Champions League than Martinez: Hernan Crespo in 2002-03 (nine) and Samuel Eto'o in 2010-11 (eight), so he holds Elite Company.
Bayern Munich – Harry Kane
On the other side of the field, Harry Kane is only one target contribution from his 100th for Bayern in all competitions.
He scored 77 goals and delivered 22 assists because it stands for the Bundesliga Giants, and will become the fastest player who is on record (since 2008, when OPTA started collecting such data) to reach the 100 marking for target contributions for the club.
Kane's Radar, however, was eliminated in the first stage. He had six shots and collected 1.0 xg, but only managed to hit the target twice. He will expect more from himself this time.
With 50 targets to his name in the Champions League (39 goals, 11 assists), Kane is only three away from the record of David Beckham for an English player in the competition (52).
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