Arsenal is almost guaranteed a top five finish, while Aston Villa has only 34 percent chance to qualify for the Champions League of next season, according to the latest statistics from OPTA.
The Gunners, who deposited from the competition to Paris Saint-Germain halfway through the week, are second with 67 points, albeit 15 behind the already crowned champions Liverpool, and have a chance of 99.7 percent to be eligible, say the estimates of OPTA.
They travel to the side of Arne Slot on Sunday before they were confronted with Newcastle and Southampton and only know two points, with a Freak Goal Differential Swing, will secure a top five finish.
Next season there will be six English teams in the Champions League and nine in European competitions.
But Manchester City has made life more difficult for itself after they have been pressed to a scoreless stalemate in Lowly Southampton.
Pep Guardiola says that his men 'will have to fight to the end' and after falling two points of three cups are confronted.
“I had not expected anything else than a month ago, that it is a fight until the end,” he said.
With a FA Cup final against Crystal Palace, they could fall from the Champions League places before they play in the competition again.
But the good news for City, who have a similar strong goal difference for their rivals, is that Opta has taken them as 91.3 percent of the qualification for the competition.
In the meantime, Villa has received a meager 34.1 percent, the lowest of the six teams fighting for the last four places.
The side of Unai Emery is currently the same as Newcastle and Chelsea on 63 points, but have played a match and have a considerably worse target difference.
They organize Tottenham before they travel to Manchester United – two parties who have set their sights on Europa League Glory instead of domestic success.
And former midfielder Lee Hendrie believes that their favorable list of luminaire Villa Pip could see their rivals.
Speaking at Sky Sports, Hendrie, who spent 13 years in Villa Park, said: 'I think the other that you should consider, is these Spurs and Manchester United Games for villa – what do they play for?
'There is nothing else they can play for. So they play, you know, a part team where, you know, he just keeps – both managers keep players suitable for the final?
'I think that is the other that you should look at from a villa point of view. It is clear that I have my villa cap again, but you know, I think so I think Villa is really in an important position. '
Villa, who was beaten from the Champions League by finalists PSG, can absorb a maximum of 69 points this season.
Asked by Jamie Redknapp if they could hit that count, Hendrie replied: 'I think they do that. I think that the home form was brilliant in Villa Park. That will be – again, I said – three cup final and it starts again on Friday against Spurs, and then I feel that they go to Manchester United and all three points. '
Redknapp added: 'And clearly with Tottenham and Manchester United with a huge Europa League Cup final, their priority is there.
“And especially with other teams that take points from each other, it feels like they give themselves a real chance, and they just have to ensure that they ensure points at home.”
Chelsea has a 67.9 percent chance to secure a Champions League place. They have a challenging run against Newcastle, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest.
A return to Europe's elite competition would be a step in the right direction in the first season of Enzo Maresca, with the blues currently participating in the Conference League.
They play real betis in the final on 28 May, because they want to be the first club, all of which wins the European matches.
It could have been so much better for Chelsea, who were only four points behind leaders Liverpool at Christmas.
Newcastle host Chelsea on Sunday for a trip to the Emirates. They play David Moyes's Everton on the last day. They have a chance of 69.3 percent of the Champions League qualification according to OPTA.
While Forest, who did not play in the competition since they were reigning champions in 1980, arranged at 37.7 percent.
They compete against Leicester in an East Midlands derby for matches against West Ham and Chelsea.
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